Propelled by the threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, Quebec turned toward Mark Carney’s Liberals, helping the party secure a fourth consecutive term in office.
The Liberals were elected in 44 of Quebec’s 78 ridings midday Tuesday, with a remarkable 43 per cent of the popular vote — that’s the highest percentage and number of seats since 1980 under Pierre Elliott Trudeau.
The Bloc Québécois, on the other hand, won only 22 seats, down 10 seats compared to the 2021 election.
Here are some key takeaways for Quebec the day after the vote, after CBC News projected a Liberal minority government.
1. Bloc squeezed out
The Liberals enjoyed the best result in the province in decades, with the Bloc pushed to the sidelines in an election where Trump loomed large.
Issues such as Quebec identity, secularism and language took a backseat in the campaign, said Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president with the polling firm Leger.
“It seems like Trump’s shadow really was present not just throughout the campaign, but again, in the results that we saw last night,” he said.
“This very high concentration of the vote with the two main parties really tells us that this was a choice between who was going to be the best person to lead Canada.”
As a result, the Bloc, like the NDP across the country, saw a major drop in support, Dallaire said.
Even so, in a minority Parliament, the Bloc could have some influence over what transpires in Ottawa.
Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet said Tuesday he had “mixed feelings” about what he described as an “unusual election.”
Blanchet said his party’s struggles were likely due to a combination of the “threat from the White House and the very clever use of the fear in the population by the Liberals.”
He said the first priority now would be to help assist in negotiations with the U.S.
“It won’t be a matter of years. It will be a matter of months,” he said.
Asked about Quebec sovereignty, Blanchet said, “I believe what we need right now is a sort of truce on sovereignty, but not for any extended period of time.”
2. Tight races swing to Liberals outside Montreal
All but two seats on the island of Montreal went red, including LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, a riding in Montreal’s Sud-Ouest borough that swung Bloc in a recent byelection.
One of those seats went to NDP incumbent Alexandre Boulerice. The other went to Mario Beaulieu, the Bloc incumbent in the east-end riding of La Pointe-de-l’Île.
But what did change is some of the ridings in the region outside Montreal, both on the South Shore and north of the city.
The Liberals were declared the winner in Terrebonne on Tuesday afternoon. Tatiana Auguste, the Liberal candidate, won by only 35 votes over the Bloc incumbent.
That riding will be subject to a recount under Elections Canada rules.
La Prairie-Atateken, formerly held by the Bloc, swung Liberal, as did Longueuil-Saint-Hubert.
3. Province could play a bigger role
With a weakened Bloc, it could fall on Quebec politicians to defend the province’s interests, said one expert.
“We know that those identity politics and language and cultural protection issues, they have not gone away in Quebec,” said Donal Gill, an associate professor of political science at Concordia University.
“There will be a huge push to put those front and centre by provincial politicians and to sort of position themselves vis-a-vis a Liberal government now that has a prime minister.”
Quebec Premier François Legault, who had avoided endorsing a party during the campaign, said he wants to work with Prime Minister Mark Carney.
“We need to work hard, Ottawa and Quebec, to protect businesses, to protect jobs, and I’m happy also that during the campaign, Carney promised not to compromise on Quebec’s interests,” he said.
Blanchet, as well, said he would work to defend Quebec’s interests in the midst of a trade war with the U.S. He stressed the need for the next federal government to protect the province’s aluminum and dairy industry.
“I think that the key word that the people of Quebec want to hear is stability,” he added, but not stability with compromises, which is “not in our nature.”
Carney has said his priority will be the economy in the face of U.S. threats. During the campaign, Carney said he would protect the French language and Quebec’s economic interests in any negotiations.
4. Conservatives fail to make inroads
The Conservatives once again failed to make inroads in Quebec.
They secured 11 seats by midday Tuesday, with one new seat for the party. Conservative candidate Gabriel Hardy won a narrow victory over Bloc incumbent Caroline Desbiens in the riding of Montmorency-Charlevoix.
Since the creation of the modern Conservative party under Stephen Harper, the Tories have struggled to maintain double-digit seat numbers in Quebec.
The party won 10 seats in the 2021 election, mostly in the area around Quebec City.
CBC Quebec spoke to people in the Montreal area about their thoughts after learning the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, will form the next federal government.
