Leaders at this year’s G20 summit in South Africa sounded the alarm that the group’s relevance and effectiveness were at grave risk in the face of escalating geopolitical conflicts and a world order that is dramatically shifting.
Founded in the late 1990s in part by former prime minister Paul Martin, the Group of 20 has met every year since 2008 with a focus on international economic and financial stability.
It’s supposed to be the pinnacle of multilateralism: the idea that nations can co-operate, compromise and co-ordinate for the greater good.
But a lot has changed in the past two decades.
“We are struggling to resolve major crises together around this table,” said French President Emmanuel Macron at the opening of the summit, adding that “the G20 may be coming to the end of a cycle.”
At the heart of this “rupture” in the global world order, to borrow Prime Minister Mark Carney’s description, is the United States and President Donald Trump.
Trump’s tariff war on most of the world, combined with his transactional approach to geopolitical conflicts like the war in Ukraine, had G20 members focusing more on how to find economic security than integration.
Even a massive economy like China, a country itself often accused of destabilizing the world’s security, voiced its concerns over for the future.
“Unilateralism and protectionism are rampant,” said Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who was at the G20 in place of President Xi Jinping.
“Many people are pondering what exactly is happening to global solidarity.”
Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, invited to the G20 for the first time, said he was also worried about the fate of multilateralism.
“It’s more about deals and therefore it’s more prone to conflict,’ Stubb said in his opening remarks.
A G20 with no U.S.
Trump’s total boycott — no American official was sent in his place — may have some questioning wider global unity. But it did bolster solidarity among those who remained at the table.
Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand pointed to the adoption of a consensus declaration at the very start of the summit.
“One of the beauties of the G20” are the “formal and informal conversations and decisions that are taken amongst leaders,” she said.
“Given that it’s the first time the G20 has been held in Africa, given that there are not only the members of the G20 in attendance, but also outreach partners … bottom line is, yes, it is a great day for multilateralism.”
Many of Ukraine’s allies have expressed concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace plan amounts to a ‘wish list’ for Russia. But Christian Leuprecht, a professor at the Royal Military College and Queen’s University, says Ukraine is in a weak position and that Trump’s deal presents a ‘significant opportunity’ for both sides to find common ground in a way that meets everyone’s ‘reasonable objectives.’
A dozen countries, including Canada, the U.K., Japan, France, Germany and the EU, also came together on the edges of the summit to respond to what Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called one of the most difficult moments in his country’s history.
Trump had given Ukraine until Thursday to accept his plan to end the war — a plan that is seen as widely favouring Russia.
The response was a joint statement carefully worded to “welcome” U.S. peace efforts, while insisting that much of the draft plan will “require additional work.” It said borders must not be changed by force and expressed concern over the proposed downsizing of Ukraine’s armed forces.
The “coalition of the willing” is meeting on Tuesday about the plan, with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer saying there has been “progress” on adding elements that are more palatable to Ukraine.
U.S. self-isolation and dedication to its “America First” approach has countries, especially middle powers like Canada, seeking and finding like-minded nations to boost trade and investment and bolster security through new alliances.
Carney pointed out that the countries at the summit represented two-thirds of global GDP, and three-quarters of the world’s trade.
“We are not living a transition, but a break. And in each break, it is the responsibility to build a new start. We know that nostalgia is not a strategy. We cannot rebuild the world. We are building something better,” he said in French at his closing news conference.
For Carney — and by extension Canada — that “something better” is a growing list of investment deals and trade talks with other countries.
His office says it landed a $90-billion investment in Canada’s economy from the U.A.E., with $23 billion of that for specific projects. Carney also launched talks toward a new investment agreement with South Africa and announced the start of negotiations for a trade agreement with India.
Prime Minister Mark Carney used the G20 meeting to diversify Canada’s trade options including an agreement to work toward a new trade deal with India after years of tension between the two countries.
Carney met jointly with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Vietnam Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính, aiming to forge a link between the Pacific Rim and EU blocs.
“Linking those two of the world’s largest trading blocs, representing over a billion people, will expand trade, catalyze investment and increase partnerships across a range of areas from AI to energy in the Indopacific, Europe and, of course, very much in Canada,” said Carney.
He said senior officials from all sides will work in the coming months to deliver “concrete results in this new bloc.”
The number of invited guests and the scope of the G20’s mission has expanded greatly over the years. The U.S. takes over the presidency next, and with Trump at the helm, expect both the number of attendees and the agenda focus to be greatly pared down.
But with the 2027 and 2028 summit presidencies held by the U.K. and South Korea, the short-term future of the G20, at least, seems secure.
Advocates for the survival of global co-operation insist multilateralism isn’t dead — it’s simply changing.
Carney said he sees a global economy that was defined by “concentration of capital, production and power” being reshaped by a “diffusion of energy and influence” over the next century.
And in that, he said there will be new roles for middle powers like Canada in “multilateral arrangements that work for all.”
