Jobs, economy top voters’ priorities at the end of a turbulent 2025: Nanos poll

A year-end poll from Nanos suggests Canadians will want to see action from the Liberal government on major economic files in the new year.

Just over one in five respondents to the poll published this week said jobs and the economy were the most important national issues — more than double the 10 per cent who listed relations with the United States and President Donald Trump as their top priority.

Inflation, health care and immigration rounded out the top five concerns for Canadians.

A separate Nanos poll, also published this week, indicates consumer confidence is in a firmly neutral position heading into the new year.

For both polls, Nanos surveyed more than 1,000 people in the four weeks leading up to Dec. 26. The pollster cites a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Jobs and trade uncertainty

Chief data scientist Nik Nanos said the economy and U.S. relations jockeyed for top spot in voters’ priorities throughout 2025.

While the jobs question took centre stage in the recent polling, he noted that the uncertainty clouding the trade relationship with the U.S. is also feeding into questions about how the Canadian economy will perform in 2026.

Nanos said consumers are downbeat about their personal finances, putting them in an “anxious holding pattern” heading into the new year.

What remains to be seen, he said, is whether that anxiety leads Canadians to put off major purchases, setting off a cycle that could hamper the economy next year.

“It’s too early to tell. But I think right now, at least, it’s a bit of a wait-and-see for many Canadians,” Nanos said.

Liberals poll ahead of Conservatives

Prime Minister Mark Carney swept to power this year in the spring election in part by positioning himself as the person best equipped to handle Trump and the economic upheaval he has triggered.

In the months that followed the election, he set up new agencies to rapidly build housing and major projects, cut income taxes for most Canadians and deepened federal deficits to focus on capital investments.

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As many Canadians grapple with mounting financial pressure, political leaders stress social programs and tax cuts as evidence they’re trying to help. That said, even with inflation steadying, grocery prices in particular rose again substantially this year.

While Carney’s Liberal government secured an additional two seats before the end of 2025 through Conservative MPs crossing the floor, the party remains one seat shy of majority government status.

If the minority Liberal government is defeated in a confidence vote, that could trigger another federal election.

Nanos polling puts the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives at 38.4 per cent to 34.1 per cent to close out the year. Carney maintains preferred prime minister status at 48.6 per cent, topping the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre at 27.6 per cent.

Poilievre will face a mandatory leadership review at the Conservative convention in January after the party failed to win the April federal election.

Skepticism around vows to fix long-standing woes

Nanos said that while Canadians want to see action on problems like the cost of housing and groceries, they might at this point be skeptical of any politician promising to fix long-standing cost-of-living woes.

Poilievre and the Conservatives likely hold an edge in voters’ minds when it comes to inflation, Nanos said, but Carney is probably still more trusted to negotiate a deal with Trump.

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U.S. President Donald Trump addressed Americans from the White House on Wednesday night, saying that the U.S. economy is strengthening despite weak hiring and high inflation.

“I think we’re talking about a battle of the ballot questions,” Nanos said.

“If the focus is on Donald Trump and the Americans, I would expect that Mark Carney will have the upper hand. If the focus is on the rising cost of groceries, the rising costs of housing that will probably give the advantage to Pierre Poilievre.”

NDP could be a deciding factor

With support between the Liberals and Conservatives sitting close to the margin of error, Nanos said the NDP — currently languishing with a 11.2 per cent share of voting intentions — could become a deciding factor in the next election.

The Conservatives will want to see the NDP revive after its upcoming leadership contest in order to court progressive voters away from the Liberals, he said.

With the calendar turning over, many Canadians who were expecting to see results on major economic files like U.S. trade and affordability could start to grow frustrated if they don’t believe the Liberals have lived up to the ambitions of their 2025 campaign, Nanos said.

The arrival of 2026 will mark an opportunity for Poilievre to remind voters of outstanding promises Carney made “last year,” he said.

“I think what the Carney government has to watch out for (are) grumpy voters who want action and want to see results.”