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It’s Groundhog Day — the long-held tradition of watching animals coming out of hibernation to predict whether there’ll be an early spring or six more weeks of winter.
Every Feb. 2, groundhogs and even a crustacean emerge from their shelters to see if they see their shadows.
Here are some of the Canadian animal weather prognosticators set to make early-morning appearances:
- Shubenacadie Sam, living at the Shubenacadie Wildlife Park in Nova Scotia.
- Lucy the Lobster in Barrington, N.S.
- Wiarton Willie in Ontario.
- Fred la marmotte in Quebec.
- Van Isle Violet in Nanaimo, B.C.
In the U.S., perhaps the most famous weather forecasting groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania, with a prediction expected at 7 a.m.
Legend has it that if a groundhog (a crustacean in Lucy’s case) emerges from its burrow on a sunny day and sees its shadow, it’ll return to hibernation for six weeks more weeks of winter. But if it’s cloudy and there’s no shadow, spring will arrive early.
70 years of predictions in Wiarton
In Wiarton, with a population of about 1,900, the Groundhog Day event is at Bluewater Park, with the beloved woodchuck set for a prediction at 8:07 a.m. ET. There have been multiple Wiarton Willies over 70 years, making the town on the Bruce Peninsula a big tourist destination.
Each year, there’s an annual festival, which kicks off with breakfast and fireworks at 7 a.m. This past weekend, there was also a curling event, chili cook-off, skating, a dance and family activities in Bluewater Park, where one of Willie’s enclosures is located.
Danielle Edwards, manager of economic development and corporate communications for the Town of South Bruce Peninsula, said Groundhog Day events are often seen as a homecoming.
“People kind of have taken off and spread their wings throughout Ontario or beyond. And then, family and friends come back for our Willie weekend to celebrate this annual tradition together.”
As for what people want Willie’s prediction to be, she said it’s always about a 50/50 split on an early spring or more winter.
“We have people that love to see six more weeks of winter for all of the outdoor recreational activities. And then you have the other people who would prefer sun and sand,” she said.
A massive winter storm has buried millions under a historic blanket of snow and ice, locking much of North America in a dangerous Arctic air mass. CBC’s Johanna Wagstaffe breaks down the rare atmospheric collision of a polar vortex and an atmospheric river — two extreme weather phenomena that combined to create this record-breaking, high-impact event.
Groundhog Day’s roots
Groundhog Day was first marked in the U.S. with a prediction by Punxsutawney Phil in 1886, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s website reports.
The first official trek to Gobbler’s Knob was made on Feb. 2, 1887.
Phil is perhaps the world’s best-known groundhog given his longevity in the weather-predicting biz. He’s also featured in the movie Groundhog Day starring Bill Murray.
The tradition in Wiarton began in 1956 as a bit of a joke. The Town of South Bruce Peninsula says it was started by a “spirited individual” named Mac McKenzie, who had “a desire to shake off the winter blues and bring some warmth to the community.”
He invited friends out for a night on the town and put out a fake news release saying the event was to mark Groundhog Day. That joke release made its way into the hands of a Toronto Star reporter, who arrived in town to report on the event.
“In a moment of whimsy and spontaneity, when asked about the whereabouts of the groundhog, Mac playfully tossed a fur hat into the snow,” the town’s website says.
“Seizing the opportunity for a memorable photo, the reporter immortalized the hat as a stand-in for the elusive groundhog.”
As for the accuracy rate of these animal weather prognosticators, that’s all over the map.
Accuracy rates up and down like the weather
According to the Weather Network, Wiarton Willie has had a success rate of 29 per cent since 2000, the lowest percentage among five “marmot meteorologists.”
In the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) graded 17 U.S. groundhogs (including live and taxidermied ones), a prairie dog statue and a tortoise last year. It determined the accuracy rates ranged from 25 per cent (Mohave Max the tortoise) to 85 per cent (New York’s Staten Island Chuck).
Over the years, others have come up with their own way of making their own shadow-driven predictions on Groundhog Day. They include:
- Bonhomme Couèche: A person in a costume who is part of the winter carnival in Shediac, N.B..
- Manitoba Merv: A puppet/golf club cover.
- Alberta’s Balzac Billy: A person in a groundhog mascot costume.
- B.C.’s Okanagan Okie: A stuffed animal.
