Sinners or OBAA? Predicting the most unpredictable Oscars in years

Welcome to the most unpredictable Academy Awards in living memory.

Sure, some categories may feel like a lock: frontrunners Sinners and One Battle After Another are almost guaranteed to earn best original and best adapted screenplay, respectively. Avatar: Fire and Ash should pull in best visual effects, Frankenstein should see success in the technical categories, and anything other than KPop Demon Hunters in best song and best animated feature would be a seismic event.

But it’s unpredictable elsewhere. Many categories have been drastically influenced by a topsy-turvy awards season, and a box office supported by an uncharacteristically original slate of films.

To help you prepare for what is sure to be a nail-biter of a night, we’ve broken down the biggest categories — and the razor’s-edge battles taking place within them.

Best picture

Probably: One Battle After Another.

Maybe: Sinners.

Should win: Either.

DiCaprio appears in a still from One Battle After Another. Though an early frontrunner and projected winner, it could easily be toppled by Sinners. (Warner Brothers)

Of course, best picture is a vitally important category every year. But starting off an Oscars prediction ballot with this award gives an opportunity to break down the betting strategies this time around.

Heading into the awards with more nominations than any film ever, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is set to break some kind of record. But the awards circuit darling has clearly been Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle, picking up top prizes from the Producers Guild of America, Directors Guild of America (DGA), BAFTA Awards, Critics’ Choice and the respective adapted screenplay category from the Writers Guild of America.

But don’t count out Sinners just yet. A late-stage win at the Actor Awards (previously SAGs) has set up the underdog Cinderella story that Academy voters love. And then there was the media debacle at the BAFTAs, in which Sinners stars Delroy Lindo and Michael B. Jordan stood onstage while a racial slur was heard from the audience (said without intent by a man with Tourette syndrome).

If you were to believe some publications, both those events improved Sinners‘ odds. Also in the film’s favour is its impressive list of nominations. The three previous record holders for most Oscar nods were Titanic, All About Eve and La La Land; the first two also won best picture, while the last one infamously nearly did.

And then there’s the energy around the film. Awards prognosticator Clayton Davis of Variety reported that many voters believe One Battle will triumph, but were personally voting for Sinners. He predicted that was the perfect storm to set up several surprise wins for the vampire flick.

But despite an internal push for diversity in their voter rolls, the Oscars aren’t necessarily known for their iconoclasm. OBAA‘s dominance throughout awards season, its more awards-friendly genre (only one horror, The Silence of the Lambs, has ever won best picture) and vague, safely non-specific revolutionary theme set it up as the frontrunner.

As the Hollywood Reporter noted, about 20 per cent of the Academy’s voters are based abroad, while the Actor Awards’ are almost entirely based in the U.S. That has led it to honour more populist fare — and particularly films about Black American issues — more reliably, including wins for The Help and Black Panther.

All that makes this humble predictor place more chips on the safer bet: One Battle After Another. But come Oscars night, those brave enough to believe in Sinners‘ momentum could put the doubters to shame.

Best director

Probably: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another.

Maybe: Ryan Coogler, Sinners.

Beware: Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme.

Two men wearing dark clothing sit on chairs holding microphones. — Paul Thomas Anderson, left, and DiCaprio appear during a One Battle After Another special screening in November 2025, in London. Anderson’s star seem set to rise at this year’s Oscars, though there’s the potential for the curse to continue. (Stuart C. Wilson/Getty Images/Warner Bros.)

Coming earlier in the night, this award will likely be a fantastic predictor of which way the winds are blowing. It’s another head-to-head between Sinners and OBAA, and the latter has the assumed edge here, as well. Anderson won best director at the DGAs, which has correctly predicted the best director winner all but eight times since its inception.

If Coogler were to win, he would become the first Black director ever to do so, with only six nominated before him. And given that Anderson’s films have earned him a score of nods but no wins (his 11 previous nominations make him among the losingest filmmakers of all time), voters may feel like it’s time. On the other hand, many outlets have made public cases for Coogler’s win.

Meanwhile: It won’t happen, but just have your bug-out bag nearby in case of a surprise award for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme.

After a tacit box-office battle with his brother — and former collaborator — for the latter’s film The Smashing Machine, Josh Safdie’s success had him riding high for a while. But recently reignited allegations from a previous film have likely tainted his awards chances.

Marty Supreme will probably leave with no statuettes, but an (incredibly unlikely) win here would definitely devolve into a major controversy.

Best actor

Probably: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners.

Maybe: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme.

Should win: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon.

Two men wearing 20s-era suits grin while looking past the camera. Behind them is what looks to be a dilapidated barn. — Michael B. Jordan appears in the film Sinners. He plays both the characters Smoke and Stack, pictured here. A recent win at the Actor Awards, presented by SAG-AFTRA, seems to predict Jordan’s coming success. (Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc.)

Finally, here’s a category where Sinners competes against a title other than OBAA. Michael B. Jordan’s biggest competitor here is instead Marty Supreme‘s Timothée Chalamet.

A three-time best actor nominee and (as yet) no-time winner, Chalamet’s film-anchoring performance as a self-destructive go-getter was seen as a lock for much of the season. And after losing the title last year in a surprise upset to Adrien Brody, the Oscars may want to bestow Chalamet with a belated honour.

But unfortunately for him, another shock loss at the BAFTAs combined with a media run where he seemingly went too far in embodying his character’s self-confidence may have soured his chances. His recent statements about the relative obscurity of ballet and opera likely had no effect, though, as they made headlines after voting closed.

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And since voting closed, Jordan has pushed forward in his place as the clear favourite. Add to that Jordan’s unexpected moment besting Chalamet for the same category at the Actors, and the fact the Academy tends to dislike honouring younger male performers. At 39, Jordan is closer to the average best actor winner’s age, which is in the mid- to late 40s. Chalamet, at 30, is just barely above the youngest winner ever (Brody, again, at 29 for The Pianist).

Ignoring all of that — and however unlikely this may be — a win for Ethan Hawke’s wonderfully committed performance in Blue Moon would be welcome.

Best actress

Probably: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet.

Maybe: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.

Should (have) won: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby.

Jessie Buckley in a scene from Hamnet, which is nominated for 8 Academy Awards including Best Actress for Buckley. — Jessie Buckley appears in a scene from Hamnet, whose performance should bring the period piece a trophy on Sunday. (Focus Features)

Best actress is one of the only categories this year that appears locked down, to the point that it feels incredible to even think about Jessie Buckley losing. Her turn as grief-stricken mother in Hamnet has already captured wins at the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice, the BAFTAs, the Actors and more.

The only real competition would potentially be Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, a fantastically layered role that more than deserves a win — though the likelihood of that happening is so low it’s barely worth considering, given the veritable dump truck of awards already foisted on Buckley.

In one of the Oscars’ biggest snubs of the year, Eva Victor should have been a major contender for their phenomenal writer-director-starring turn in Sorry, Baby. (Victor is nonbinary, but they were nominated for best actress at the Golden Globes.)

Best supporting actress

Probably: Amy Madigan, Weapons.

Maybe: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another.

Keep in mind: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners.

An elderly woman with a red wig with microbangs and ostentatious clothes appears mid-speech. — Amy Madigan is in a scene from Weapons. Though genre films tend to struggle at the Academy Awards, Madigan should earn the horror movie some hardware. (Warner Bros./The Associated Press)

Amy Madigan carries the odd miracle of a film that is Weapons, with her unsettling performance positioning her to become the first horror supporting actor to nab the category since Ruth Gordon in 1968’s Rosemary’s Baby.

Then, there’s Teyana Taylor to consider. She picked up a Golden Globe for her role in One Battle After Another, and is Madigan’s clear competitor.

But once again, don’t count out Sinners. Like her castmate Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku also earned gold at the NAACP Image Awards and the BAFTAs, becoming the first Black British woman to win best supporting actress at the latter ceremony. Her star has been rising ever since; their viral backstage BAFTAs moment together screams Oscars narrative.

Best supporting actor

Probably: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another.

Maybe: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value.

Keep in mind: Delroy Lindo, Sinners.

A woman holds a gun to the back of a man with zip-tied hands. — Sean Penn, right, appears as Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw in One Battle After Another. If its tenuous momentum holds, Penn could compound the film’s successful night. But it’s almost equally likely that he could be one of One Battle’s many projected winners to experience a surprise upset. (Warner Bros./The Associated Press)

Compared to best actor, this category does feel like a battle of the mature male leads. Sean Penn’s stylized, literally lip-biting interpretation of Colonel Lockjaw feels like the performance that overtly does the “most.” While Jacob Elordi physically transformed via makeup and prosthetics for Frankenstein, 65-year-old Penn does the same solely through the power of his expressions and mannerisms — the type of performance that often sways voters.

But vote-splitting with his co-star Benicio Del Toro theoretically could take OBAA out of the running. That could allow Sinners‘ Delroy Lindo, 73, to finally nab his first Oscar. More likely, though, would be an award for Hollywood mainstay Stellan Skarsgård, 74, whose subtle villainy in Sentimental Value screams awards-bait.

There could be another narrative in Skarsgård’s favour; this year, the Academy mandated that voters watch all entries of each category on which they intended to vote. Again, according to Variety, many voters viewed Sentimental Value as “homework viewing” that they finished last, if at all. If Skarsgård’s film were the final one to make an impression, he could see a boost to his chances.