Elbows up or down? Why Alberta is diplomacy-first in the trade war

Alberta’s top U.S. diplomat says playing nice is paying off for his province in the Canada-U.S. trade war. 

Nathan Cooper, Alberta’s senior representative to the United States, told CBC’s West of Centre that compared to provinces that have taken a more aggressive approach, Alberta has come out ahead. 

“I think the premier’s diplomacy-first approach has really not only been helpful for me, but certainly helpful for the province,” Cooper said.

“If we look at the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Alberta economy, we have a disproportionately low impact.”

Experts have said while Alberta’s industries are not immune to the impact of the trade dispute, they are not seeing the direct hit other provinces are. Despite the trade war, the U.S. continues to increase its imports of Canadian oil. 

The comments come as Cooper, the former speaker of the Alberta legislature, spent time in Nashville, Tenn., with Premier Danielle Smith last week. 

Cooper said American officials have been “significantly more responsive” to his team than some of his provincial counterparts. 

Alberta is the only remaining province with no ban or retaliatory levy on U.S. alcohol imports. The province’s position on that is something the Americans have shown “a real appreciation” for, Cooper said. 

“I believe that that’s actually translated into results for the province of Alberta,” he said. 

The premier said her trip to Music City was a personal one, but she took time to meet with business and tourism leaders while there. Ahead of her trip, Smith also appeared on U.S. news networks pushing for a return to the bargaining table.

Honey or vinegar?

Not everyone has been on board with Alberta’s approach. 

Following Smith’s trip to Mar-a-Lago last year, she was called out for not being a part of a unified “Team Canada” response.

This summer, Premier Doug Ford pushed for Canadian leaders to take a stronger stance, and called for energy exports to be cut off to the U.S.

Smith’s predecessor, Jason Kenney, has said a modest tax on oil exports should be considered to put extra pressure on the president.  

Smith has rejected both ideas and consistently said doubling down on diplomacy is a better approach.

“I think in this scenario, maybe Premier Smith is seen as a dissenting voice or not quite on script,” Evan Menzies, vice-president of Crestview Strategy said in an interview.

But Menzies, who previously worked as a director of communications for Smith’s party, said things look more favourable for Alberta when you zoom out. 

“If you’re to look at what’s bearing good fruit, Alberta’s efforts seem to be bearing some good fruit.”

Smith’s too-friendly-to-resist approach contrasts against Ontario Doug Ford’s aggressive advertising and insult slinging.

Cole Hogan, a strategic communications advisor at Alberta Counsel who has worked on Ford and Kenney campaigns, said the divergent tactics make sense considering domestic priorities.

“Ford’s approach, while it makes a lot of people feel good … it hasn’t garnered the same results that Smith’s approach has here in Alberta.”

“They both have different political goals in doing so — they have different industries to serve.”

Separation anxiety

All this comes amid a looming election in Alberta on whether to hold a binding referendum on separation — something U.S. officials are increasingly waking up to.

It’s been used by representative Andy Harris to trumpet renewed calls for a 51st state and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as a sign of disunity and failed trade talks. 

On the ground, Cooper said the referendum isn’t frequently raised in his meetings with U.S. officials.

“At the end of the day, one of my key jobs is to try to determine the difference between signal and noise and do what I can to get people focused on the big issues that are impacting our province.”