Since the early 2000s, the moose population in Ontario has dropped by about 20 per cent and upwards of 50 per cent in parts of the north — and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) is trying to figure out why.
Ministry research scientist Nick Luymes recently hosted a presentation on the latest findings from his team’s multi-year moose research project in Wildlife Management Unit 13 near Thunder Bay.
Initiated in 2024, the project examines the various factors contributing to moose population decline, including predator-prey dynamics, pests and disease, calf survival, road impacts and forestry activities.
Despite significant reductions in hunting tags over the years, moose numbers have largely failed to increase in nearly two decades, according to Luymes.
“We want to get an understanding of what makes these limiting factors important so we can target that context in our manipulative experiments,” he said.
“We want any of our findings to be useful for other parts of the province and what’s driving those factors.”
Ministry research scientist Nick Luymes provides presentation on moose population study during the recent Northern Ontario Tourism Summit in Sault Ste. Marie. (Alex Flood/CBC)
What the ministry’s early findings suggest
In the last two years, biologists and technicians with the ministry have captured and collared more than 200 moose in the Thunder Bay area with GPS and video tracking to monitor their movements, behaviours and lifestyle.
“At capture, we get a lot of data such as pregnancy status, health, parasite load, condition of their body and information on genetics,” Luymes said.
Because of active predators like wolves and black bears, Luymes noted that much of the decline in moose can be attributed to low calf survival — with just one third of them making it through their first year.
His team determined the approximate annual survival rate for adult cows is 95 per cent and 70 per cent for adult bulls.
“We get alerts for when a moose might be dead. If they are, we can collect samples and do investigations at the site to understand why they died.”
To date, 36 of the ministry’s collared moose in the study area have died.
Vehicle collisions and hunting were the most common causes of mortality for adult males, while predation was the most common for calves and yearlings older than eight months.
For adult females, “unknown health problems” topped the list.
“We’re hoping to get better confirmation on what the specific causes are,” Luymes said.
“We have bodily samples submitted to labs that will do more formal analyses on what’s causing those deaths.”
A moose is collared as part of the ministry’s ongoing study near Thunder Bay. (Ontario Fish and Wildlife)
Addressing predator concerns ‘a Band-Aid’ solution, says conservationist
Dave Pearce is a senior forest conservation manager with Wildlands League, a Toronto-based conservation group and partner with the Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society.
While he recognizes wolves and bears have certain implications on moose populations, Pearce isn’t convinced they should receive all the blame.
“It’s easy to say they’re driving things, so reduce the predator population,” he said. “But that’s kind of a Band-Aid that doesn’t really address the core fundamental issues.”
According to Pearce, a big contributor to stagnant moose numbers is climate change.
He points to rising and above seasonal temperatures as a key reason why the large mammals aren’t thriving like they used to.
“Especially in the spring, we’ve been having sudden onset of summer-like heat and moose can get hyperthermic and overheat very quickly,” he explained.
“Heat-stressed animals won’t move around and feed as much, and that doesn’t only impact the animal but its offspring too.”
Moose populations in Ontario are down despite there being fewer hunting tags than in previous years, according to the province. (CBC)
Pearce noted that a warming climate is beneficial to white-tailed deer. If their numbers go up, then more predators could flock to that habitat — ultimately impacting moose.
He also raised the issue of winter ticks that feed heavily on moose, though Luymes explained in his presentation that the ministry isn’t noticing any significant concerns of that in its study area.
During 10-day excursion last year, Sault hunter saw one moose
Jeremy Coulis has been hunting moose in northern Ontario since he was a young boy.
An Indigenous hunter from Batchewana First Nation and Sault Ste. Marie, Coulis also participates in the government regulated tag system with his non-Indigenous friends.
“It’s the social aspect and getting into nature,” he said. “Getting up with family and friends and getting away from technology for a few days. It’s nice.”
But in recent years, the sport has gotten much more challenging for Coulis and his group.
On a recent hunting trip this year just north of Aubrey Falls, he and seven of his friends saw four moose — three cows and one bull — during their week of hunting.
Last year, that same group only saw one moose there across 10 days of hunting.
“It’s definitely harder now,” he said. “You can spend days and days out there, but the moose just aren’t there.”
“When you see one, it’s actually kind of a shock and a surprise nowadays.”
Jeremy Coulis and his friends enjoy hunting for moose north of Aubrey Falls every fall. (Submitted by Jeremy Coulis)
With the decline in tags in recent years, Coulis has also noticed much fewer camps and hunters out in the bush.
When asked why he thinks moose numbers haven’t been recovering, Coulis expressed concerns over forestry companies that spray forests with herbicides.
Their goal in spraying is to kill broadleaf vegetation which competes with coniferous trees like spruce and pine that are harvested for their lumber — but environmentalists have voiced frustration with the practice in recent years.
“Quebec has proven that their moose population has rebounded substantially since they stopped spraying,” Coulis said. “But Ontario has no interest in stopping the spray.”
