Canada’s chief actuary says Alberta would be entitled to interest from the Canada Pension Plan proportional to the money Albertans have invested, should the province withdraw from CPP.
The chief actuary’s position paper, posted online on Friday, comes to a similar conclusion as University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe. Last year, Tombe calculated that Alberta would be entitled to between 20 and 25 per cent of the $575-billion plan.
“It is a clear rejection of the government’s 53 per cent claim that has been quite prominently touted now for some time,” said Tombe, who is the director of fiscal and economic policy at the university’s School of Public Policy.
As part of its exploration of withdrawing Albertans from the CPP, and creating a provincial pension plan, the Alberta government commissioned a report from consultants at LifeWorks.
The authors in 2023 concluded Albertans would be entitled to $334 billion of the CPP if it withdrew on Jan. 1, 2027. That would be more than half the value of the CPP nest egg shared by Canadians living outside Quebec.
Tombe says LifeWorks derived that estimate by assuming Albertans would be entitled to as much interest as if it had created an independent provincial pension plan in 1966 — when the CPP began — and watched interest accrue.
The chief actuary, Assia Billig, disagreed with the LifeWorks interpretation. Her position paper says the federal law governing the CPP must be interpreted as if all provinces could withdraw from the plan at the same time and take their share.
“A calculation method that results in negative parts, or in a hypothetical allocation to all provinces that is higher than the total net investment income does not respect the textual indications of the legislation,” her report says.
She goes on to write that neither of the scenarios presented in the LifeWorks report respect that interpretation of the law.
The Alberta government’s website about the risks and benefits of creating an Alberta Pension Plan still includes the figures from the LifeWorks report about Alberta’s possible share of the CPP.
Alberta government still analyzing the report
In a Friday statement to CBC, Finance Minister Nate Horner’s press secretary Justin Brattinga said the chief actuary’s report didn’t contain a dollar value or a formula for calculating one.
The premier has previously said she would put a referendum question to Albertans about creating a provincial pension plan before deciding whether to withdraw the province from CPP.
“We are still analyzing the report and will have more to say at a later date,” Brattinga said. “We would not consider moving forward with a referendum on the issue until after we have a firm number to provide Albertans.”
Tombe was also hoping to see a number or range provided in the chief actuary’s analysis, which took more than a year to complete.
However, he says it is possible to arrive at a number based on the chief actuary’s interpretation of the law. The actuary also cites Tombe’s analysis and agrees with his interpretation.
Tombe says the chief actuary’s interpretation could still lead to a viable argument for creating an Alberta pension plan.
Even if Alberta is entitled to 20 per cent of the CPP, the province’s younger demographics work in its favour to limit payouts to retirees, he said.
“I hope this report does provide for a more informed, thoughtful policy conversation, because reasonable people can differ in how they weigh the benefits versus the risks,” Tombe said.
