Matthias Friedel has witnessed up close shifts in the local labour market over the past five years, when he took over as the Edmonton-based branch manager for Prime Staffing, an employment agency.
A disturbing trend, however, has been its pool of job seekers more than doubling from about 20,000 to 44,000 in that time, he said. The clientele of employers has grown, too, but not at the same rate.
“It’s a bit of a scary time, because so many people are looking for work and then there’s just not enough jobs,” Friedel said.
As the election nears, the major federal political parties are mindful about keeping Canadians employed and creating new jobs amid the U.S. trade war. But federal data shows Canada — including Alberta — is experiencing a competitive labour market, with relatively high unemployment and few job vacancies.
In Alberta, after record population growth in recent years, about 260,000 more people have jobs compared to September 2021, when the last federal election was held, according to Statistics Canada data that was adjusted for seasonality.
The province’s unemployment rate was 7.1 per cent as of March — less than one percentage point lower compared to September 2021, data shows. The job vacancy rate also dipped from 4.5 per cent to 2.9 per cent as of January, the latest month for which that data was available.
“[Those indicators] are showing, essentially, a labour market that is pretty slack. In essence, it favours the employers,” said Pedro Antunes, chief economist for the Conference Board of Canada, an independent research firm.
Friedel, from Prime Staffing, said it seems employers are aware of that.
The agency, which links people to temporary work as well as permanent positions, vets candidates so it can match them appropriately with different jobs. But in the past year, more companies have been particular with who they take on, he said.
“They don’t just want anybody. They want somebody there who is competent, who does have Skill X, Y and Z to complete the job, so it is a bit of a seamless transition,” Friedel said.
Last fiscal year, more than 784,000 Albertans attended employment centres — which offer resources and equipment to help people with career planning and job searches — and workshops and “labour market delivery events,” according to a spokesperson for the Office of Seniors, Community and Social Services Minister Jason Nixon.
The ministry expects demand for “employment supports” to increase, the spokesperson said.
Budget documents show the ministry earmarked nearly $185 million this year for career and employment services for “underemployed and unemployed” Albertans. The spokesperson said the money is expected to help 40,000 people find and keep jobs this year.
But Antunes, the economist, said job creation could hinge on the trade war with the United States.
The U.S. government started imposing tariffs on certain Canadian imports last month. Now, the U.S. and China — the world’s two largest economies — are trading tax barbs that, Antunes said, are hurting other countries.
Uncertainty created around whether tariffs are applied, not the taxes themselves, are the problem and will seize up consumer and investment spending — “the big drivers of the economy,” he said.
“We’re going to see businesses really stand off and wait to see where this is going,” he said, noting that could affect job creation.
“It’s the same for consumer confidence because … they’re very worried about the financial situation, about future job prospects.”
Some of the federal parties have promised to create opportunities in various ways, such as pushing homebuilding, starting infrastructure projects like pipelines and investing in specific industries, such as lumber and manufacturing.
The Conservatives and Liberals, specifically, have also vowed funding for apprenticeships to help more people afford training and get opportunities to enter the skilled trades workforce.
For Friedel, in Edmonton, job creation would factor into who gets his vote, he said.
“When we’re creating these jobs, it’s not only for now, but hopefully for the future,” he said.
“I know these things take time. So I’m hoping that whoever gets elected does see that and say, ‘Hey, this is scary. So many people are looking for work.'”
Election day is April 28.
