Outside the United States consulate in Montreal earlier this week, a few dozen people gathered to show their support for Canada in the face of threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Among them was a longtime Bloc Québécois supporter, Lucie Nucciaroni, holding a sign declaring, in French, “Canada will stay Canadian always.”
Nucciaroni described herself as a Quebec sovereigntist, but she said in this election, preserving Canada’s sovereignty is even more important.
“I think about my kids and my grandchildren. We can’t live like Americans,” said Nucciaroni. “Quebec needs Canada and Canada needs Quebec.”
She is planning to vote Liberal.
Nucciaroni’s change of heart is reflected in what pollsters say appears to be a broader shift across the province.
Quebec nationalism and provincial issues like language, immigration and secularism often loom large in federal election campaigns, but Trump’s tariffs and threat of making Canada the 51st state has reshaped the campaign so far.
“It’s weighing heavily on Quebecers the same way that it’s weighing on Canadians,” said Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president with the polling firm Leger.
“It makes it harder to talk about Quebec sovereignty when the whole country is being threatened by our giant neighbour.”
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and rhetoric about Canada becoming the 51st state are reshaping the federal election campaign for Quebecers in ways that were almost unimaginable just a few months ago.
Patriotism on the rise
Prior to Trump’s inauguration, the Bloc was far ahead in opinion polls, and support for the Liberals under Justin Trudeau had cratered.
Now, the Liberals — as in other parts of the country — have enjoyed a resurgence in Quebec under new leader Mark Carney. And the Bloc is at risk of fielding those losses.
“Patriotism has gone up, and has gone up markedly in Quebec,” Dallaire said. “There is a sense that we need to be in this together as a country, trying to defend ourselves against the threats coming from the United States.”
Out of Quebec’s 78 seats, CBC’s poll tracker estimates the Liberals could elect between 38 and 46 MPs, followed by the Bloc with between 19 and 27, the Conservatives with between 11 and 14 and the NDP retaining its lone seat.
At dissolution, the Bloc and the Liberals both had 33 seats, followed by the Conservatives with nine and the NDP and an independent with one (another seat was vacant.)
The altered political climate under Trump presents a challenge for the Bloc in particular, said Brooke Jeffrey, a political science professor at Concordia University.
“They can’t really talk about separation,” she said. “That’s clearly not on the table.”
Jeffrey said the Bloc has lost its main raison d’être in a political context where the federal government is “seen as the best way to protect Quebec language and culture.”
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Yves-François Blanchet, the Bloc’s leader, has had success in the past presenting his party as the defender of Quebec’s interests in Ottawa.
When asked at the outset of the campaign what he would try to do differently in the age of Trump, Blanchet downplayed the question.
“We will support what is good for Quebec,” he said. “One should never vote because of fear. One should try to find reason in what he or she hears or reads. We will try to force logic and rationality and information.”
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, speaking in Montreal on Day 4 of the election campaign, is asked whom he prefers to collaborate with and to be the next prime minister.
Ridings up for grabs
In the Montreal riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, where the Bloc won in September by just over 200 votes, victory could be more difficult this time around.
The Liberals finished second, followed closely by the NDP in third.
Robert Languedoc, a voter who lives in the riding, said the economy and Trump will be top of mind when he casts his ballot — and he won’t vote Bloc.
“We need to have a strong Canada,” said Languedoc, who has voted for the separatist Parti Québécois in provincial elections.
“To have a strong Canada, you have to get people to vote for the same person.”
David Nguyen, a teacher at a school in the riding headed home for the day, said he hasn’t decided who to vote for. In the past, he supported Trudeau’s Liberals but said he would wait to see which party seems best prepared to deal with the Trump administration.
“I think if there’s anybody that has the persona and charisma to match whatever is going down there, that’s probably the person I would vote for,” he said.
Another voter, Sylvie Desruisseaux, said she usually votes NDP, but said “it’s not time for a change, it’s time to be strong against Mr. Trump.”
This is Montreal20:07For some Quebec voters, it’s elbows up at the ballot box
Usually, it might be Quebec sovereignty that’s on the table come election time. But this time around, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation, some Quebec voters, like those in the rest of Canada, have Canadian sovereignty on their minds. We’ll look at what that might mean for the electoral map in Quebec.
Premier François Legault, who in the last election suggested a Conservative minority would be the best fit for Quebec, also didn’t want to pick a favourite, this time between Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
“I won’t answer this question,” he said when asked last week. “I’ll be happy to work with either of them and I expect that they do a good job. Both of them.”
Even so, Dallaire, the pollster, said the electoral landscape in the province remains unpredictable, and the Conservatives, NDP or Bloc could all make gains, with Carney in his first election campaign.
Already this week, the Liberal leader had to apologize after he confused the 1989 École Polytechnique massacre with a different school shooting years later at Concordia University.
Blanchet and Poilievre also criticized Carney for refusing to pay $75,000 to participate in a second French debate, hosted by TVA. It’s since been cancelled.
“It’s a campaign like no other,” Dallaire said.
“The name of the game coming into the election is volatility, and we can expect to see some more volatility in the coming weeks.”
