February 13, 2026 Team Contibutor
For decades, the Canadian travel pattern worked like clockwork: a southern migration to Florida’s coasts or a weekend hop across the border to Buffalo or Seattle. But January’s official travel figures signal a change: Canadians are travelling less to the United States, while long-haul trips are rebounding.
The early data from the national dataset point to a shifting travel pattern driven by political friction, practical factors such as weather and transport mode, and changing traveller confidence. Canada’s own numbers make the scale of that shift plain.
Looking into the early-year pattern
Canada saw 4.2 million international arrivals by air and automobile in January 2026, down 8.4% year-on-year, highlighting a decline in visitor traffic. Canadian-resident return trips (that is, Canadians returning from trips abroad) were 3.1 million, a 11.0% drop from January 2025, indicating a notable reduction in outbound travel.
The most striking trend? Canadians made 24.3% fewer trips to the United States in January 2026 compared to January 2025, indicating a significant shift in travel patterns. That’s roughly one in four trips that simply didn’t happen. When you compare January 2026 to January 2024—before trade tensions escalated—the decline is even steeper at 28.2%, suggesting sustained changes in travel behaviour over two years.
Canadian automobile crossings from the U.S. dropped 26.8% year-over-year, while air travel declined 17.8%. These figures indicate Canadians are reconsidering how and where they travel, whether it’s weekend shopping trips to Buffalo or snowbird drives to Florida.
The overseas bright spot
Travel is not all down. Canadian-resident overseas return air trips rose 11.1% year-on-year to 1.4 million in January 2026. Canadians are now shifting leisure spending from short cross-border car trips to longer air itineraries, including European city breaks, winter sun escapes, and other long-haul options. One in three Canadians plans fewer trips, funnelling resources into single, high-stakes bucket-list journeys.
The visitors to Canada data
The news here is more mixed:
American visitors: Largely held steady, with just a 0.5% overall decline. Interestingly, U.S. travellers actually increased air trips to Canada by 2.5%, though automobile crossings dipped 1.5%. Americans appear less deterred by the trade situation than their Canadian counterparts.
Overseas visitors: Fell 2.3%, though air arrivals edged up slightly (0.8%). The decline was driven by a 27.5% drop in automobile arrivals—a much smaller category to begin with.
Assessing the US slump
The United States is the most popular short-trip destination for Canadians. Recently, there has been a sharp drop in car crossings, which is notable given that these trips are usually quick and frequent. This decrease in car travel points to a change in behaviour.
News reports and travel experts link the drop in visits to political issues and signals from Washington, which have made Canadians less interested in crossing the border. The Canadian dollar is also weak against the US dollar, so the usual affordable weekend trips to the US are less appealing.
Major outlets have noted US states’ efforts to lure Canadians back, but persistent trade tensions, border policy uncertainty, and negative media coverage have weighed on confidence.
What’s driving the change?
While Statistics Canada doesn’t speculate on causes, the timing coincides with escalating trade disputes between Canada and the United States that began in 2025. The data suggests many Canadians are either avoiding the U.S. as a destination or facing economic pressures that are limiting cross-border travel.
Inclement weather also dampened travel volumes, particularly later in January. Seasonal and storm factors drive daily arrivals. The busiest day was Saturday, 3 January (156,900 arrivals). A trough on 21 January (68,700) coincided with widespread inclement weather that disrupted travel nationwide. This volatility shows how quickly short-haul travel is affected by conditions, which explains the drop in easily cancellable discretionary car trips.
Key takeaways for travellers and the industry
Cross-border travel between Canada and the U.S. faces its sharpest disruption in years, with Canadians leading the pullback. Here’s what to expect in the coming days.
- This downturn affects border economies. Areas that rely on cross-border shoppers and day-trippers, such as retail, fuel, and hospitality businesses near crossings, will likely continue to face challenges as car traffic stays low.
- Airlines and tour operators may retool. Rising long-haul demand points to carriers and holiday operators shifting capacity toward direct winter sun and European routes, even as short-haul frequencies ease.
- Finally, policy and perception matter. Political rhetoric and border policy signals directly affect demand because they shape travellers’ expectations and willingness to visit. Thus, restoring goodwill and clarifying entry rules are necessary to increase demand back to former levels.
Parting shot
These early figures are an important signal: travel patterns are fluid and politically sensitive. The passport may be the same, but the Canadian traveller of 2026 is a far more discerning, cautious, and purposeful explorer than the one we knew just two years ago.
For the travel industry, the message is clear: the traditional patterns of Canada-U.S. cross-border tourism are being rewritten in real-time. If geopolitical tensions with the United States continue to influence perceptions, the reallocation could persist through 2026, reshaping seasonal demand and regional tourism economies.
The fuller picture will arrive with the complete March release; until then, the January snapshot is a useful guide to how policy and perception are steering where Canadians choose to go.
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