The unexpected but long-awaited resignation of Canada’s prime minister has ushered in a series of economic questions and uncertainties, including in Manitoba.
Justin Trudeau stepped down as leader of the federal Liberals on Monday, ending a nearly decade-long run as Canada’s political leader, and his departure — he will stay on as party leader and prime minister until his successor is chosen — adds a new wrinkle to Canada’s response to Donald Trump’s tariff threat.
Regardless of who becomes the prime minister and what colour their political stripes are, industry leaders in the province want the country’s next leader to hear their voices.
Andrea Ladouceur, president of the Bioscience Association of Manitoba, believes the hefty 25 per cent tariffs that the U.S. president-elect threatened Canada with in November would be detrimental to business in the province.
“If a leadership race is happening … for our companies, it’s very important that they’re top of mind in any conversation related to tariffs and to trade,” Ladouceur said.
Manitoba exported $2.3 billion worth of medicine to the U.S. in 2023, according to the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics. Medications — both prescription and over the counter — are the province’s biggest exporter to the U.S. in terms of dollars.
Ladouceur said her sector, which holds “economic advantage,” is always looking for cost-competitive ways to do business, so if Canada becomes uncompetitive the door could open for relocation to the U.S. or other parts of the world.
“Whether it’s innovative medicines or a new way of producing our food, we want to make sure the leadership of our country and of our province understands the economic, and also the innovation importance that comes from the sector,” she said.
“We want them to be profitable enough to reinvest those dollars to keep innovating our economy and making sure that we have the things that we need to heal, feed and fuel our world.”
WATCH | Justin Trudeau prorogues parliament, steps down as leader of the federal Liberals:
In a major political development, Justin Trudeau has announced he will step down as both prime minister and Liberal Party leader once a replacement is chosen, likely delaying a federal election until the spring. Andrew Chang breaks down what led to this announcement and the implications of proroguing Parliament amid growing tensions with the U.S and president-elect Donald Trump.
Images gathered from Reuters, Getty Images and The Canadian Press.
‘Absolutely critical market’
Trump claimed the tariffs were in response to concerns about border security, migrants and illegal drugs — especially fentanyl.
Canada has since announced more than $1 billion to bolster border security, but it’s unknown whether those promises will sway Trump to drop the tariffs. He returns to the Oval Office on Jan. 20.
Barry Prentice, director of the University of Manitoba’s Transport Institute, isn’t expecting Trump to actually go through with the threat of tariffs.
“I don’t believe for a minute there’s going to be an across-the-board tariff increase in Canada … it’s just too disruptive to them and to us,” Prentice said.
But he adds that the president-elect will do whatever he wants.
Prentice expects Trump to call off full-fledged tariffs on incoming Canadian goods, but maintains the possibility that specific sectors, like aluminum or steel, could be hit with strategic tariffs — even on short-term basis.
He believes the Trump administration recognizes Canada is headed toward a future Conservative government, and that the Liberals are unlikely to cut any deals with the Republicans.
“The bureaucrats are always there and, of course, they have the information about what’s going on and the connections. It’s not like the ship is going to be floating without an anchor,” Prentice said.
And should tariffs be applied, he thinks some industries in the province could be affected more than others, including the swine industry.
Cam Dahl certainly hopes not.
The general manager of Manitoba Pork says a comprehensive and strategic plan is needed in the face of potential tariffs that would induce ruination on one of the province’s largest exporters to the U.S.
He says Trudeau’s announced departure cannot delay talks of such a plan.
“We still have the government. We still have the cabinet. We still have ministers and this needs to be at the very top of their list of the work that they’re carrying out. So I would hope that our federal minister of agriculture is going to take on this task and take on the job of ensuring that we have a plan in place,” Dahl said.
“It needs to include all the provinces. It needs to include farmers. It needs to include the industry.”
A total of $439 million worth of pork and live pigs — about 40 per cent of what is produced in the province — were transported south of the border in 2023, and the sector contributes north of $2 billion annual to the provincial economy.
“It’s not just pork. It’s across the board. The United States is our biggest market, whether it’s canola or wheat or oats or pork or beef. It is an absolutely critical market for us,” Dahl said.
Chuck Davidson says partisan politics need to be put aside with the tariff threat hanging over the country.
The president of the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce, Davidson calls a potential tariff war with the U.S. a “lose-lose situation” for both nations.
“There’s a longstanding relationship between the two countries from a trade perspective that’s been beneficial to both sides, but that uncertainty is something that business never likes,” he said.
Until there’s some certainty around what exactly Trump is planning to do once he takes office, that will determine how provincial and federal leadership responds, Davidson said, adding that Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew and other Canadian premiers have “really stepped up” on the importance of the relationship with the U.S.
Kinew is in North Dakota and will meet with that state’s newly-elected leader, Gov. Kelly Armstrong, on Tuesday, and attend his State of the State address.
The premier spoke with Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers and U.S. Ambassador to Canada David Cohen about trade on Monday.
“There’s a lot of good work that these efforts — we’re expanding in the U.S. right now — will have to ensure that our economic interests in terms of your jobs, in terms of continuing to grow as an exporting province can move forward even as we navigate this period of turbulence and uncertainty,” he said.
Kinew also thanked Trudeau for his years of service and said Canada’s premiers will continue to ward off tariffs.
“That should be a reassuring sign to Canadians and to Manitobans that while the prime minister has announced his intention to step down, that it is the leaders of the provinces and territories who are going to continue to to hold the mantle.”
