In a “get ready with me” video posted this week, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh twists his long hair under his turban and talks about his life before politics.
“I went out and got three minimum-wage jobs … to put food on the table,” he says to the camera.
The TikTok video is similar to the way he introduced himself to Canadians in his first election as leader in 2019. Now he’s entering his third campaign.
“I struggled hard … I’m going to fight for you,” he says.
The NDP — and its leader — could be in one of their toughest battles yet.
Recent polling suggests the New Democrats’ popularity has fallen to its lowest level in decades, according to Éric Grenier, who runs CBC’s Poll Tracker, which aggregates public opinion polling.
“The NDP support has just tanked over the last few weeks, and they are in serious trouble,” Grenier said.
His data suggests the NDP’s support is now under 12 per cent and that the NDP could lose roughly three-quarters of its 24 seats in the House of Commons. Singh’s own riding — and the party’s official status — are at risk.
“You probably have to go back to the 1990s to find the NDP polling so poorly,” Grenier said.
“If the NDP continues to poll at this level for a steady, consistent amount of time, the NDP could be on track for one of its worst results in at least 30 years.”
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, speaking from Hamilton on Thursday, is asked if he should step down as leader if he does not improve the NDP’s standing in the next election. Singh responded by saying ‘we are focused on the election in front of us.’
Singh was asked about his party’s fortunes on Thursday in Hamilton.
“This is a very important election, and I know that Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre would want nothing better than for the NDP to disappear,” Singh said.
“We’re not going anywhere.”
Shaking Justin Trudeau
New Liberal Leader Mark Carney is likely part of the reason for the NDP’s recent slide, Grenier said.
“To see how quickly the NDP vote tanked with the change of [Liberal] leadership suggests that a lot of those voters were parking their vote with the NDP. But as soon as another alternative popped up, they were ready to abandon the party,” he said.
And while the Liberals have done away with Justin Trudeau, it’s not clear that Singh has done away with his own association with the former prime minister.
Through a supply-and-confidence agreement, the NDP kept the Liberal minority afloat for more than two years by agreeing to vote with them on key legislation.
In return, the Liberals agreed to support major social programs like dental and pharmacare. The New Democrats regularly point to these as significant policy wins for a party with only 24 MPs.
But that might not be resonating with Canadians. On Vancouver Island, where New Democrats hold the majority of the seats, some voters say their message isn’t landing.
“I have over the years voted NDP, but I’m going to vote Liberal because I really think that they need every vote,” said Robyn Austin.
“The federal NDP has done some good work, but its messaging and branding have not been on point,” said Farrell Gilmour, who is leaning toward voting NDP. “They haven’t been able to really take credit for some of the wins.”
Nawal Lasfar says she is voting Conservative.
“They kept the Liberal Party in power. And for that reason, I would not vote for them,” Lasfar said.
Levelling the playing field
Jennifer Howard, the New Democrats’ national campaign director, said the election will give the party another chance to get its message out to voters.
Once the campaign begins, political parties have spending limits for advertising — and the party says its war chest is large enough to meet those limits.
“We will be on the same level playing ground as the other parties,” she said.
In 2024, the NDP raised $6.2 million, less than half the Liberals’ total and dwarfed by the $41.7 million the Conservatives raised.
But Howard and others within the party have been keen to point out that the NDP is going into this election in the best financial shape since Singh became leader.
They’re ready to spend up to $34 million — some of it borrowed.
“It has been a very volatile time, I think, for everyone who has been watching the polls. We’re not in the same place we were months ago,” Howard said.
“That also tells me that things can change quickly … we’re going to see some more change before the dust settles.”
Trump as the ballot box question
That volatility — largely coming from the U.S. president — means core NDP campaign issues, like affordability and housing, might no longer be at the top of voters’ minds.
Former NDP campaign director Brad Lavigne said the party must devise a plan to “meet the moment” to respond to President Donald Trump’s threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty.
“The ballot question for this federal election will be who is best in the prime minister’s chair and the federal government to tackle Donald Trump and the tariffs,” Lavigne said.
As Carney moves the Liberal Party’s policies to the right of Trudeau, there could be an opportunity for Singh to pick up support from progressive voters, Lavigne said.
“We’ll see in the coming days, as this election unfolds, whether or not he can seize it.”
‘Fight like his future leadership is on the line’
This will likely be a defining election for Singh.
When he became leader in 2017, Lavigne said there was hope Singh could break into untapped voters, particularly with the younger and suburban electorate around major urban centres.
But the NDP has lost 20 seats in the House of Commons since then, and over 400,000 fewer Canadians voted for them in 2021 than in 2015 under former leader Tom Mulcair.
“I would suggest that unless Mr. Singh could turn this around, New Democrats are going to have a lot of difficult questions following this election campaign,” Lavigne said.
“Mr. Singh needs to fight like his future leadership is on the line.”
Asked Thursday about whether he’ll step down if he’s unable to improve the NDP’s results this time, Singh said, “Right now, we’re focused on the election in front of us.”
As for the party’s future, outgoing and longtime New Democrat MP Charlie Angus said the NDP has started campaigns where they have been written off before.
“The first time I ran, I was considered a joke candidate because I was this punk rock kid running in a Liberal bastion. And I’ve held that riding ever since,” said Angus.
“So we’re always the underdog. That’s okay. We’re used to that.”
