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U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to tariff Canadian fertilizer imports could damage Saskatchewan’s potash industry if demand for the mineral critical in making fertilizer drops off, according to a University of Saskatchewan professor.
“It would likely cause layoffs at the mines and there would simply be a glut supply of potash in Saskatchewan, which would cause companies to scale back their production capabilities,” said Stuart Smyth, a professor in agricultural and resource economics at the U of S.
“The Saskatchewan potash companies will be very concerned about this.”
Trump threatened to tariff Canadian fertilizer imports to the United States during a White House meeting Monday when asked how he planned to increase domestic fertilizer production.
“A lot of it does come in from Canada. And so we’ll end up putting very severe tariffs on that if we have to, because that’s the way you want to bolster here,” Trump said.
He didn’t provide additional details on how those tariffs would work.
“You put very severe tariffs on,” he said. “You’ll be making your own fertilizer very soon.”
Saskatchewan produces about a third of the world’s potash supply, shipping much of it south to the United States, where it is used as a key component in fertilizer.
That fertilizer is then used on crops to increase production, help with moisture retention and disease prevention, according to the Saskatchewan Mining Association (SMA).
“Fertilizer is an essential input, disrupting this trade risks lower application rates and reduced crop yields, with implications for global food security,” the SMA said in an emailed statement.
The organization spoke on behalf of the province’s main potash mines, including K+S Potash Canada, The Mosaic Company and Nutrien.
Saskatchewan’s main competitors in potash production are Belarus and Russia “who combined produce about 37.5% of the world’s potash,” according to the SMA.
Premier Scott Moe said he met with United States Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent recently, and neither wanted to see tariffs placed on fertilizer imports, which would drive input costs up for American farmers.
“They would have to buy it somewhere else, namely Russia would be the option.”
That would mean Saskatchewan companies would need to seek out other markets to replace the United States, Moe said.
“When the president says some words like he did yesterday, we tend to take those seriously,” Moe said.
“I think with respect to these statements we just take a breath and move on, but it is a challenging and not very certain conversation that’s happening.”
According to the Government of Canada, 46 per cent of potash exported from Canada in 2023 was destined for the United States.
Fertilizer Canada, an industry representative, issued a statement to CBC which said the United States does not have enough potash to meet domestic demand, regardless of Trump’s efforts to stimulate domestic fertilizer production through tariffs.
“Potash, for example, is a mined mineral dependent on naturally occurring deposits, and the U.S. does not have sufficient reserves to meet domestic demand,” Fertilizer Canada stated in an email.
“To protect the competitiveness of North American farmers, access to a reliable supply of tariff-free fertilizer is essential.”
Saskatchewan NDP leader Carla Beck said Trump’s remarks are further evidence that Canada can’t rely on the United States as a trading partner.
“Scott Moe seems to suggest playing footsies or playing nice is going to get us where we need to go. I’m not seeing evidence of that.”
