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New Brunswick will table its latest budget Tuesday after months of warnings from Premier Susan Holt that spending in some areas will have to come down.
The budget will show how the government has chosen to make those cuts, which, according to Holt, is a necessary step to address a growing deficit.
It will also reveal what that deficit amounts to as of the end of the fiscal year, compared to the province’s last estimate of $1.3 billion.
A deficit of $1.3 billion would be unprecedented for New Brunswick, and already more than double her government’s projection as of last budget.
The province’s fiscal plan will map out spending, taxes, deficit and debt.
The budget will also tell us the province’s net debt, and project how the deficit might look in the coming year.
How much interest the province is on the hook for as of year-end, and how much it might have to pay next year, will also be included in the budget.
Where will cuts happen?
Holt has asked departments to reduce their overall spending by 10 per cent — and no department is exempt.
She has also solicited public opinion on how those spending reductions should materialize.
While some of the options considered by the government were made public through an online consultation form, others — including a suggestion to close St. Thomas University and stop funding Mount Allison University — were not.
After those ideas were reported on, first by L’Acadie Nouvelle, it wasn’t long before Holt backtracked.
She promised, at first through social media messages to constituents, that the budget wouldn’t result in those post-secondary closures.
It remains to be seen whether Holt’s consultations have given the government any clarity on where it can cut with the least public impact.
It also remains to be seen whether Holt will be swayed by criticism of Tuesday’s budget, or hold fast to what the government has settled on.
Where is N.B. over budget?
The budget is a guide, and ultimately, the government can change course.
In addition to the projected spending for each department, the budget will also show the amounts each department actually spent on each program last year.
After last year’s budget release, the government landed in hot water with the province’s child and youth advocate over this detail.
Advocate Kelly Lamrock argued that because child welfare spending has been chronically over budget, the government should have been increasing spending from what was actually spent, rather than what was previously budgeted.
Every spring, the New Brunswick government puts forward its plan for what it will spend or cut over the next year.
While the province may increase certain budget lines in comparison to the previous amount budgeted, it’s not guaranteed that the increase will amount to more than what that item actually cost last year.
That means that although a department may see a budget increase, it might not be in a position to actually spend more than it did in the previous year.
That could be significant as some departments are anticipating costs to grow.
Health Minister John Dornan recently called increases to health spending “unavoidable,” amid inflation and a new agreement recently signed with physicians.
