After Doug Ford’s significant majority victory in Ontario, one might think Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would be racing to cozy up to the premier for help in winning the crucial battleground province in the federal election.
Poilievre, however, said he hasn’t approached the Ontario Progressive Conservative leader for assistance. Ford, meanwhile, indicated he won’t be publicly supporting any of the candidates, insisting he will stay out of the campaign to focus on his province.
Ford did stay out of the 2019 and 2021 federal campaigns. But some of his reluctance to campaign for a fellow conservative in this election may be motivated by friction between the two leaders, some analysts say. And it could also be rooted in the perception that the Ontario premier sees little political gain by helping out Poilievre.
“It would be of great benefit to Poilievre. I don’t think Ford sees a lot in it for himself,” said Andrea Lawlor, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University.
Ontario will always have a ‘seat at the table’
Ford doesn’t risk being ignored by Poilievre if he were to win, she said.
“Ontario will always have a seat at the table,” Lawlor said. “I think in Ford’s case in particular, he’s shown that he’ll work with anyone who has the same policy objectives. And I think right now, they’re as much aligned with [Liberal Leader Mark] Carney as they would be with Poilievre.”
Ontario, with its 122 seats, will again be the key to electoral victory. It would seem then to be in the interest of Ford to help a fellow conservative like Poilievre secure victory. And, that it would be in the interest of Poilievre to make a significant effort to get Ford’s support.
“Why would you not hitch your wagon to to Doug Ford?” said Julie Simmons, an associate professor of political science at the University of Guelph.
Yet so far, there doesn’t seem to be any effort to join forces. Indeed, Poilievre denied a Toronto Star story that he had recently called Ford seeking his assistance. Ford also denied Poilievre was seeking help, but did say he indicated to the Conservative leader that he would be staying out of the federal election.
Asked last week about campaigning for Poilievre, Ford said that he’s “not going to help anyone. That’s not my job.”
He added that his priority is to keep Ontario moving forward. As for whether his MPPs could help the federal Conservatives, he said they’ll be “absolutely swamped” with fulfilling their mandates and should be focused on Ontario.
Ford wouldn’t say whether he’d have a better relationship with Poilievre or Carney, instead insisting he will “work with anyone.”
But he conceded that it’s “no secret” that he’s developed close relationships with some federal Liberal cabinet ministers, including Chrystia Freeland and Dominic LeBlanc.
“I don’t know either one of them, to be very frank,” Ford said of Poilievre and Carney.
This morning, I met with Mark Carney, Canada’s incoming prime minister for a positive and productive discussion. We agreed on the need to stand firm and strong in the face of President Trump’s threats, including additional retaliatory tariffs in response to U.S. tariffs on steel… <a href=”https://t.co/tIGK8W2FNJ”>pic.twitter.com/tIGK8W2FNJ</a>
—@fordnation
Yet Ford did meet with Carney in March before he was sworn in as prime minister for breakfast at an Etobicoke restaurant. He praised Carney as a “gentleman” who has an “extremely astute business mind” and “understands numbers.”
Ford suggested the recent phone call with Poilievre was the the first time he’d reached out to the premier since Poilievre became Conservative leader in 2022.
‘No love lost’
The fact that Poilievre had apparently waited weeks to personally congratulate Ford for his victory raised political eyebrows.
“I think that for sure, there’s no love lost between the two of them,” Simmons said. “I think the lack of co-operation is more coming from the Ford side than the Poilievre side.”
But that lack of co-operation may also reflect the different type of conservative each man represents, Simmons said.
“[Poilievre] is farther to the right then Ontarians are traditionally as conservatives,” Simmons said.
Lawlor agreed that they both offer different strands of conservative politics in Canada, and that Ford is more of a pragmatist, a “public outreach populist” who sees his job as serving a broad constituency.
“Whereas Poilievre’s brand of conservatism is more ideological and values oriented,” she said.
“They’re not enemies, but they’re not natural allies either.”
However there have been reports about bad blood between the Ontario Progressive Conservatives and the federal Conservatives, who criticize their provincial counterparts for not being conservative enough.
But there’s also reported tension between veteran Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke, who managed Ford’s recent re-election, and Poilievre’s chief strategist, Jenni Byrne.
Teneycke recently went public to blast the federal campaign, saying it was headed to defeat unless it pivoted and focused on U.S. President Donald Trump.
One Conservative suggested to CBC News that the tension — not only between Teneycke and Byrne but also between the Ontario and federal Conservative leaders — amounts to a “civil war” within the Conservative movement.
Kathy Brock, a professor of policy studies at Queen’s University, said it might be “dangerous for both sides” to have Ford actively campaign for Poilievre.
She said Poilievre may not think he needs Ford to win suburban ridings in the Greater Toronto Area, and that Ford doesn’t offer any advantage to bring in votes from urban areas like Toronto or Ottawa.
As for Ford, she said he may find it difficult to criticize Poilievre as prime minister if he had endorsed him.
“He’s going to have to all of a sudden turn his back on his ally. That’s not Doug Ford and not how people want to see Doug Ford,” she said.
“If Carney comes in, well, he’s burned an important bridge and he’s probably going to suffer for that.”
