Ten years ago, after the Brexit vote, a research institute was set up in Dublin.
Its goal? To study the ripple effects of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union.
Ian Cooper, who was born in Saskatchewan and grew up in Alberta, works at that institute — the Brexit Institute at Dublin City University — as a senior research fellow, mapping out the vote’s political and economic fallout.
In recent months, he’s said he can’t help but feel a sense of “déjà vu.”
Much of what has transpired in Alberta as the referendum approaches reminds him of the lead-up to Brexit, Cooper has said. Compelled to vocalize what he saw as parallels, he hopped on a flight.
He made the journey in August to Rimbey in central Alberta, where a free town hall was hosted by the Alberta Prosperity Project, a prominent pro-independence organization.
He noted the many farmers in the crowd, who naturally had questions about agricultural policy in an independent Alberta. The atmosphere was “respectful but not raucous,” he said.
He also listened to speeches, including one from Mitch Sylvestre, CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project.
“I’ll give him this. He’s a talented public speaker, and he has got a certain kind of gruff public charm as a public speaker,” Cooper told CBC News Network Tuesday.
Cooper also saw parallels in the messaging to the “Leave” campaign in Britain.
“They can make all kinds of wild promises about how everything’s going to be wonderful if you vote for independence, and if Alberta becomes an independent country, it’ll be all upsides and no downsides,” Cooper said.
“That was also true of the ‘Leave’ campaign in Britain … only after the referendum passed did people see just how difficult Brexit was going to be.”
Ten years after the Brexit vote, few Britons have anything good to say about its unintended consequences. For The National, CBC’s Chris Brown examines the Brexit fallout and its lessons for Alberta’s independence movement. [Note: The title of this video has been edited to adhere to CBC’s Journalistic Standards and Practices.]
Sylvestre told CBC News Tuesday that he didn’t see the Brexit vote as analogous to Alberta’s referendum vote.
“We’re very resource-rich here. And as long as there’s a market for what we produce, we’ll keep producing it,” he said. “With what we have here, we’re pretty much self-sufficient … so, you know, I think we’ll be fine.”
Unlike the Brexit vote, which led to the U.K. leaving the European Union, Albertans will be asked Oct. 19 to choose one of two options: for the province to stay in Canada, or to hold a second binding referendum on separating from the country.
Various groups have attempted to put numbers to what it would mean in practice if Albertans ultimately choose to leave Canada and successfully negotiate independence with Ottawa and the other provinces.
In September, the University of Calgary School of Public Policy estimated the cost of establishing a new country between $50 billion and $170 billion over a five-year period, adding that it would be highly unpredictable over the long term.
Separatist groups have also offered up projections.
In September, the pro-independence Alberta Transition Council estimated about $5 billion in one-time expenses, while predicting an independent Alberta would have a potential budget surplus of between $22.2 billion to $32.1 billion each year.
Lawyer Keith Wilson with the Alberta Transition Council has rejected comparisons to Brexit, arguing Brexit was about the U.K. moving away from its largest market, Europe.
“Alberta independence is about Alberta moving closer to its largest market and the largest market in the world, the United States,” he said earlier this year.
Cory Morgan, who heads the third-party advertiser Pathway to Independence, said there are lessons to be drawn from how things were handled in the U.K. after the Brexit vote.
“If you get to the point of a positive vote, your work is far from over,” he said.
“They got the vote, then took their hands off the steering wheel.”
As Alberta gets set to vote on pursuing a referendum to leave Canada, CBC’s Julia Wong goes to Bonnyville to meet the man behind one of the most prominent separatist organizations and others who believe the province is better off going it alone.
Former British PM dismissed comparison
David Cameron, who led the U.K. leading up to the Brexit vote, visited an energy conference in Calgary in September.
As part of his remarks, Cameron dismissed comparisons between Brexit and Alberta’s referendum, arguing Alberta’s vote is tied to the future of a country, rather than the U.K.’s membership in a trade association.
Former prime minister of the United Kingdom Lord David Cameron speaks at the Energy Disruptors: UNITE conference in Calgary on Sept. 28, 2026. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)
Cooper with the Brexit Institute said he agreed with Cameron that there is a fundamental structural difference, given Alberta is a province of a sovereign state.
But he said in his view, Cameron was “missing the point” tied to roles that political leaders play.
He noted that Cameron promised a referendum on Brexit to keep certain backbenchers in his party happy, though he himself campaigned against Brexit.
“You can see the same kind of thing happening in Alberta. Danielle Smith, she herself is campaigning in favour of remaining in Canada … but she’s trying to appease the hardcore, pro-separatist wing of her own party,” he said.
In an interview with CBC News chief correspondent Adrienne Arsenault, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said she is not in contact with separatist leaders, some of whom, she says may view her as “public enemy No. 1” because of her position to keep the province in Canada.
Britain ended up voting to leave, with 52 per cent in favour.
Polls tied to Alberta’s referendum have suggested a less competitive race. A recent poll suggested 23 per cent of respondents would vote to start the legal process to hold a binding referendum, while 72 per cent said they wanted to remain in Canada.
But polling suggests a very different picture among those who said they’d vote for the UCP, with 53 per cent saying they’d vote for the separation option, while 40 per cent said they’d vote to stay in Canada.
Smith was a frequent critic of federal policies that she argued disadvantaged Alberta. But under Prime Minister Mark Carney, Smith has argued that “Canada is working better than it ever has,” citing developments like the West Coast pipeline, officially known as Pacific Link.
Quite the ‘political stew’
Cooper said that in the wake of the Brexit vote, the “Leave” and “Remain” camps became entrenched in the United Kingdom’s political landscape.
“To start this process … could lead to a very, very acrimonious debate within Alberta,” he said.
Morgan with Pathway to Independence said there is going to be quite the “political stew going on,” no matter which way the vote goes.
“If the vote goes ‘yes,’ she’s in dire trouble, because she’s going to be expected by the [UCP] members and a lot of Albertans to get moving on it. If she drags her feet, that could lead to a lot of political turmoil,” Morgan said.
“Likewise, if there’s a ‘no’ vote, she’s got to figure out then how to keep the discontented faction of her party from marching off to start another party.”
