One of the leaders of an Alberta separation organization says his group is drawing closer to the release of an upcoming “white paper” exploring the structural policies needed to establish an independent country.
Keith Wilson, one of the co-leaders of the third-party advertiser Let Alberta Decide, also launched the Alberta Transition Council. The group describes itself as focused on “building the institutional, fiscal, and legal foundations to deliver a functioning sovereign state.”
“The primary focus of the paper is to detail what the transitional steps will look like for Alberta, if Alberta votes to become independent and moves from being a province to a country, to maintain continuity of service and normalcy of life for people and businesses,” Wilson told CBC News.
The white paper, scheduled for release near the middle of August, promises to sketch out its roadmap across subject areas such as finance, foreign affairs, defence and citizenship, among others.
For example, Wilson said a portion of the paper deals with the financial costs associated with transitioning border guards and passport office workers from the federal government’s payroll to a new Alberta government payroll.
Wilson said that sets this report apart from projections made by other Alberta independence groups, like the Alberta Prosperity Project, which released its fiscal plan in July 2025.
“This is more mechanical as to how to maintain continuity of day-to-day services with Alberta transitioning, if a vote for independence is successful.”
The report is expected to land within the same month as the University of Calgary’s study of the potential costs of Alberta leaving Canada, commissioned by the provincial government.
Group seeks reviewers
In the drafting process, Wilson said the organization engaged experts to weigh in across subject matter.
Now, the group is seeking additional experts to review the prior work.
Reviewers, Wilson said, are anonymous by default.
“The example I’ve used … for the chapter that deals with continuity of aviation, I want someone, say, in the C-suite of WestJet to read that chapter,” Wilson said.
“It’s less important to me that there be individual names associated with it, or a long list of them, than it is that it be a quality report that’s authoritative, accurate and reliable.”
Mount Royal University political science associate professor Lori Williams said she considers that arrangement problematic.
“For this kind of study to have credibility, we need folks with expertise and experience who are basing their assessment on reliable, objective information,” Williams said.
“If we don’t even know who’s providing or assessing that information … the credibility, the legitimacy, the believability of the final numbers and the final assessment will be called into question.”
In response to those concerns, Wilson said, “we’re living in very polarized political times.”
“In order to ensure that people who want to contribute aren’t going to face the cancel culture or doxxing or harassment, I’ve made it clear as I do to everyone involved in this project that the default is: their participation is anonymous,” he said.
“But if they want to have their name associated with their work, we very much welcome that.”
Competing projections
In advance of Alberta’s October referendum, various groups have been planting flags as they try to estimate what, exactly, the province separating from Canada would look like in practice.
The Calgary Chamber of Commerce released a report in June saying Alberta separation from Canada could spur a business exodus and shrink the provincial economy by $62 billion a year.
“It’s a huge job. If a province decides to leave Canada … there are massive costs, but there also might be some savings,” University of Calgary School of Public Policy director Martha Hall Findlay previously told CBC Radio’s Calgary Eyeopener.
“The federal government does things that a new Alberta government wouldn’t necessarily have to do. But there are [many] different federal departments that provide services of one kind or another to Albertans.”
Carlos Freire-Gibb, a business professor at MacEwan University in Edmonton whose research has zeroed in on the economic impacts of separatist movements, said “likely the real economic cost is the uncertainty secession generates.”
“When the institutional future is unknowable, in a large number of areas, foreign, Canadian and Albertan businesses rationally defer investment, and Alberta’s capital-intensive resource economy is especially exposed,” he wrote in an email.
“This has happened in Quebec, Catalonia or Brexit — even the credible prospect of separation triggers capital flight and risk premiums.”
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has estimated leaving Canada could cost the province $400 billion in transitional costs, plus an annual price tag of up to $50 billion.
The Alberta Prosperity Project, the group behind Stay Free Alberta, meanwhile, came up with a transition number of approximately $6 billion.
“We believe that over time a sovereign Alberta could become one of the lowest taxed and regulated nations in the world, rivaling jurisdictions similar to Dubai and Monaco,” the organization wrote in its June 2025 report The Value of Freedom.
Albertans will vote on Oct. 19.
