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The long-anticipated El Niño is here, and already it’s living up to the hype.
In the spring, climate scientists had forecasted an El Niño to develop in the central Pacific region.
As the months progressed, more and more of the models forecasted a particularly strong or “super” El Niño, as some people like to call it. But scientists also warned that it was too early to know for sure.
In its monthly update in June, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), issued an El Niño advisory, confirming that the warmer conditions had developed in the specific part of the Pacific Ocean known as Niño 3.4.
In order to be considered an El Niño, temperatures in that zone need to be 0.5 C above the average.
Ocean temperatures are now close to 2 C above average. And we’re not even close to the peak yet.
This is the warmest on record that region has ever been at this time of year.
“In the sort of traditional Nino 3.4 region, we’re a bit above 2 C, which is generally seen as the threshold for a very strong or, some people don’t like this term, but a super El Niño,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with Berkeley Earth, a non-profit climate analysis organization.
“So, effectively, we’re already touching a very strong El Niño conditions, and it’s early July still.”
El Niño and La Niña are part of a larger, natural cyclical cycle called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which occurs in a specific part of the Pacific Ocean.
La Niña brings cooler temperatures in that region while El Niño brings warmer temperatures.
Hausfather said there are forecasts currently expect the peak of the El Niño to occur in October, though the bulk of available models suggest it’s more likely it will peak in November or December.
“So we have a long way to go. We’re already brushing super El Niño territory, and we may well be in unchartered waters later this year,” he said.
“We might end up breaking the previous El Niño record by a truly mind-blowing margin.”
‘El Niño is no joke’
The strongest El Niño in recent years was the one in 2015-2016, where the ocean temperature anomaly was roughly 2.75 C. It’s believed that there was a comparable one in 1877-1878.
Nat Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA’s geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory, said the transition from a La Niña to El Niño has been very quick.
“We were in a La Niña last winter, which was cooler than average conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific. And now if we have a very strong El Niño forecast. That’s a very rapid change over the course of one year,” he said. “So why are we seeing such a big change this year? I think it’s still an open question.”
Some climate models predict 2026 will be an El Niño year — and that it’ll be a particularly strong one. CBC’s Nick Logan breaks down what that means, and what Canadians can expect.
Hausfather said that, when models first showed the potential of an El Niño being as strong as 4 C above average, he thought that they couldn’t be right. But, now, months later, it does seem to be a greater possibility.
“The very fact that models right now are predicting a peak of around 3.6 C when the strongest El Niño in history, including arguably the one in the late 1800s, was only 2.75 C, is kind of mind boggling.”
Could this be due to climate change?
Johnson said that, while there have been fewer neutral years in the Niño 3.4 region, and there have been bigger swings between El Niños and La Niñas, it’s not clear if or how climate change could be playing a role.
“It’s still a topic that I think we haven’t quite reached scientific consensus yet.”
Some impacts that concern Hausfather, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical issues, is food security in tropical regions — which are expected to be affected by drought in coming months.
Meanwhile, in Canada, the effects will be seen in the winter months, bringing milder temperatures, but also drier conditions, something that is of great concern for wildfire development in the spring in Western Canada.
“I think we should prepare for some pretty significant impacts,” Hausfather said. “El Niño is no joke, both for agriculture, for the natural world, for ocean ecosystems.”
