Before he even attempts to trigger a promised referendum on independence, Quebec premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has a more immediate agenda — and much of it relates to the federal government.
The Parti Québécois leader said Tuesday he would collaborate with Prime Minister Mark Carney when it serves Quebec’s interests. He said his first discussion with him was cordial and involved a shared commitment to reduce homelessness in the province.
But veteran political observers say extensive collaboration is unlikely. In fact, it benefits the PQ to show that remaining in Canada doesn’t help Quebec.
“When you have a partner who wants to show that you don’t work with him, it’s difficult to work well together,” said former federal Liberal leader Stéphane Dion.
André Lecours, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, says there’s “really no incentive” for the PQ to work with Ottawa.
“On the contrary, you want some friction, you want some tension,” Lecours said in an interview.
Here is a look at those friction points.
Slashing immigration levels
The PQ wants to drastically reduce the number of newcomers in the province. The party wants to cut the number of permanent immigrants to 35,000 — a substantial reduction from the 60,000 expected this year.
The party also wants to reduce non-permanent immigration quotas by half, setting a target between 200,000 and 250,000 people, while protecting sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and health care.
To achieve this, the PQ needs help from Ottawa.
The federal government controls final approvals for permanent residency and issues the visas for temporary foreign workers and international students. St-Pierre Plamondon wants full power over these levers transferred to Quebec — which is something the federal government has rejected in the past.
“There’s nothing that Ottawa can do that would make the PQ happy on immigration,” Lecours said.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said he spoke with Quebec premier-designate Paul St-Pierre Plamondon the morning after his election win and ‘discussed the ways that we would work together.’ On the question of a future referendum on separation, Carney said it’s ‘not a time to wait for something a few years down the road; it’s a time to act.’
The future of high-speed rail
The PQ is opposed to the federal government’s proposed high-speed rail line that would connect Toronto to Montreal and on to Quebec City.
Federal Transport Minister Steve MacKinnon has described the project as a way to “build a strong economy and create new opportunities for Canadians.”
The federal government is planning to present this fall the first segment of the route, running from Ottawa to Montreal.
St-Pierre Plamondon, however, has argued the project does not address the needs of Quebecers.
Lecours said the high-speed rail line is unlikely to go forward with the PQ in power, saying there’s “no way the federal government is going to do the project if the Quebec government is opposed to it.”
Legal battles: Bill 21 and the Crown
The Supreme Court of Canada is expected to issue a ruling by the end of the year on whether to strike down Bill 21, the controversial provincial legislation that forces some public servants to uncover their heads and bans the wearing of religious symbols on the job.
Lecours said the ruling on the use of the notwithstanding clause has the “potential to be explosive.”
If the country’s highest court strikes down the law, the PQ is likely to use the defeat as potent political ammunition, arguing it proves Quebec’s values can only be protected through independence.
St-Pierre Plamondon also said he would take steps to “abolish” the monarchy in Quebec and cut funding to the office of the province’s lieutenant-governor within 100 days of taking office.
The Constitution Act, 1982, stipulates that any modifications to the office of the King, the Governor General or the lieutenant-governor must be approved by the House of Commons, the Senate and all 10 provincial legislatures.
Experts question whether the plan is viable, but it’s likely to provoke a fight. Depending on how far the PQ goes, it could lead to prolonged court challenges and disputes with Ottawa.
It’s a remarkable political comeback for a party that was on the brink of extinction after the last election. But the Parti Québécois fell short of a majority, and has been elected with the lowest share of the popular vote in Canadian history.
Seeking $4.4B more in federal transfers
Under its five-year financial plan, the PQ factors in $4.4 billion in additional federal transfers from Ottawa.
The PQ wants higher Canada Health Transfer payments and reimbursement for costs linked to asylum seekers. It will also press for greater control over its own economy.
As St-Pierre Plamondon navigates these priorities, he will be managing a fragile minority government.
In Dion’s view, the PQ leader risks alienating voters if he is perceived as too abrasive — particularly when taking aim at a prime minister who remains popular in Quebec.
“How he will manage to make his point that we need to get out of Canada for our own sake, without antagonizing everyone — it will not be easy for him,” said Dion, who was the main architect behind Canada’s Clarity Act, a federal law that sets the rules for a province attempting to secede.
On Tuesday, Carney congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon on his victory. He said they had already discussed “how to work together for Quebecers.”
When asked about the prospect of a sovereignty referendum, the prime minister said his job is to work with all provincial governments.
“There is not a moment to waste,” Carney said. “We need to build a strong Quebec in a strong Canada.”
