As of this writing, there have been only six named storms this Atlantic hurricane season, and most of them only lasted a couple of days. So what’s going on? Where’s all the hurricane activity?
“Normally we have to blame like four or five different things, but this year, I think we really can pretty much put all the blame on El Niño,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.
“It is a very, very strong event.”
It turns out the “super” El Niño that is under way is putting a clamp on Atlantic hurricane activity.
El Niño is part of a natural cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), involving water in the central Pacific Ocean as well as atmospheric winds.
When the water becomes 0.5 C warmer than average over a particular time frame, it indicates an El Niño event. Water that is -0.5 C cooler than average indicates a La Niña event. The repercussions of these oscillations can be felt around the world.
And right now, there is an El Niño advisory, with several models suggesting this could be a historic event.
“The anomalies are getting so strong that we might see stronger than 2.4 C anomaly, which is our historical record that was set back in 1982 and 1983 winter. And we’re predicting possibly 2.6 to 2.7 C anomalies,” said Lindsey Long, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
“So, a very strong event, [with a] 75 per cent chance of being historical. We have over 90 per cent chance of it being very strong, which is the highest in our category here at NOAA.”
It’s set to be a record-breaking few months of weather, driven by a “super” El Niño. As Johanna Wagstaffe explores, a natural surge of warm ocean water is colliding with a planet hotter than ever before, bringing more extreme heat, floods, and droughts. But this “super” El Niño could also help us prepare for what’s coming.
The quiet season hasn’t exactly been a surprise to forecasters. In May, NOAA forecast eight to 14 named storms and three to six hurricanes. Its August forecast lowered those ranges to seven to 13 named storms and two to six hurricanes.
How does something in the Pacific influence the Atlantic?
How is it that what happens thousands of kilometres away in the middle of the Pacific Ocean influences what happens in the Atlantic?
Long explained that when the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are higher than normal, they tend to create vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, with strong winds in the upper atmosphere and weaker winds in the lower atmosphere.
“It kind of destroys the hurricane structure that we like to see,” Long said. “Hurricanes are very vertical beings.”
The shear has been so strong that this quiet Atlantic hurricane season could be one for the record books.
“Typically, by the time you get to, say, mid-October, the season is really starting to wind down,” Klotzbach said. “So, to use a baseball quote on these — Yogi Berra used to say, ‘It’s getting late early.'”
He said it’s unlikely that we’ll suddenly see an uptick, but we might still see one or two hurricanes form.
“I’d be surprised if we end up a season with zero hurricanes, but probably the odds of getting anything substantial out of the deep tropics are pretty low.”
However, there’s still a chance that one could develop in the warm Gulf of Mexico.
“The Caribbean still has lots of wind shear, so possible formations there are probably low, but in the Gulf of [Mexico] we are seeing less wind shear,” Long said. “So there is a possibility for some formation there or off the east coast of the U.S.”
Not quiet everywhere
But El Niño tends to have the opposite effect in the Pacific Ocean, creating heightened hurricane activity.
To date, there have been 16 named storms in the Pacific, with another likely to form after publication.
The Atlantic basin almost got its first hurricane this past weekend.
According to meteorologist and hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, Tropical Storm Fay, which formed as a tropical depression on Saturday, reached winds of 112 km/h, falling just short of the Category 1 hurricane wind speeds of 119 km/h.
Interestingly, Fay formed significantly farther north than where most Atlantic hurricanes form. Most form around 20 degrees north latitude, while Fay formed around 32 degrees north.
While this El Niño is responsible for the lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic, it’s important to note that there have been a few short-lived tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico that have impacted communities along the coast, including in Louisiana.
This El Niño is forecast to peak in November or December, though it will persist into 2027. What that means for next year’s hurricane season is still unknown.
“Typically, the year after an El Niño, you have no El Niño and a warmer Atlantic. So we can’t say for sure that it’s going to be a busy season next year,” Klotzbach said.
