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A new report is forecasting a warmer and wetter future for northeastern B.C., as well as more extreme weather emergencies for communities battered by some of the province’s biggest natural disasters over the past decade.
Average temperatures in the region are projected to rise as much as three degrees by the 2050s and five degrees by the 2080s, when summers could feel more like they do in the Okanagan and January temperatures feel more like past March temperatures.
Researchers with the Fraser Basin Council say that will impact everything from roads and water supplies to how communities prepare for floods, wildfires and evacuations.
“This isn’t about the politics of climate change,” said researcher Jim Vanderwal.
“This is people at the community level saying, ‘What is the future going to look like, and how do we plan our communities to take that into account?'”
The council completed the federally-funded study on behalf of local governments and Indigenous communities in the region, which has been a land of extremes in recent years.
In 2016, torrential rain and severe floods destroyed the region’s only road link to the Lower Mainland.
Intensifying wildfires since 2022 — including the Donnie Creek fire, the largest recorded in B.C. history — have forced thousands from their homes in several communities.
“Disruptions like that … can take a long time to recover from,” Vanderwal said.
“What we’re talking about is a significant change to a whole number of different things that can have an impact on people’s way of life.”
Wildfires and potholes
The City of Fort St. John has increasingly become a refuge for people fleeing wildfires, demanding full-time attention from staff as well as citizen volunteers.
“There was a lot of pride in being able to support our neighbours this way,” said Milo MacDonald, the city’s chief administrative officer.
“It’s a role we take seriously and that we’re prepared for, and we understand that more often, those kinds of pressures are going to be put on us.”
MacDonald says warmer weather is already having an impact on every area of the city’s operations.
“One of the things that was really front and centre for me when I read the report is just the dramatically increased number of freeze-thaw cycles in the winter, and how hard that is on sidewalks and paved surfaces and buildings,” MacDonald said.
The region is projected to experience twice as many freeze-thaw days in the winter by 2080, according to the report.
“There is a little bit of time to get in front of this, but we already see lots of those increased freeze-thaw cycles and the impact they have now,” MacDonald said.
Water an ongoing concern
The report predicts northeast B.C. summers will see a longer growing season, but also more frequent intense heat waves, as well as shorter winters with more rain and less snow in spring and fall.
That’s likely to lead to more periods of low streamflows and more severe drought conditions.
Vanderwal pointed the last year’s emergency water shortage in the City of Dawson Creek, and ongoing plans for a new water supply.
Over the last decade, Dawson Creek has also had to rebuild significant infrastructure after destructive floods in the city.
“There are times already where where we’ve run short of water, where community water systems or industry has had to restrict use,” Vanderwal said.
“We’re going to see more of that, so we need to be planning for that and any infrastructure we build.”
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