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The El Niño weather phenomenon is set to intensify further into 2027 and could be the strongest ever, raising risks of extreme weather into next year, the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday.
“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told a Geneva news conference.
The UN weather agency said its forecasts showed a near 100 per cent likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027, fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This is the first time it has expressed such a degree of certainty, the WMO said.
A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather like typhoons.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” said United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months, causing intense rains and droughts across Latin America.
This year’s phenomenon has already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across Central America’s Dry Corridor.
It is set to peak toward the end of this year, the WMO said in a statement. But its effects will continue into 2027 and are set to leave higher global temperatures next year in its wake, Saulo said.
Saulo said the WMO was stepping up preparedness and early warning efforts in preparation.
“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” she said.
Some climate models predict 2026 will be an El Niño year — and that it’ll be a particularly strong one. CBC’s Nick Logan breaks down what that means, and what Canadians can expect.
