Trump upended last year’s federal election. Will he do the same to the Quebec campaign?

In last year’s federal election, Donald Trump’s tariff threats and rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state produced an unusual plot twist in Quebec: talk of defending the province’s interests suddenly took a back seat to defending Canada against its neighbour.

On election day, Mark Carney’s Liberals capitalized on that sentiment, scoring the party’s best result in the province in decades and pushing the Bloc Québécois to the sidelines. 

Debates over Quebec identity, secularism and language were drowned out by the noise from Washington.

Now, as the provincial election kicks off today, could the U.S. president play that outsized role once again?

The newly imposed tariffs dominated discussions in the days leading up to the campaign launch, forcing every party leader to prove they can shield the province from the economic fallout.

“It seems that handling the economy in uncertain times could be the ballot box question,” Philippe Fournier, a polling analyst and founder of the website Qc125, told CBC News. 

Trade war and everything else

Before the trade war escalated, polls suggested health care, housing and the cost of living were top-of-mind issues for voters. 

In that regard, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faced an uphill battle after two terms in power and a discontent electorate, said André Lecours, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa. 

The CAQ has the most to gain if economic stability ends up being a priority for voters, he said.

“Almost overnight, the key question has gone from “how do you judge the last eight years of government?’ to, ‘who do you want to handle this crisis?’” Lecours said.

According to a recent report by Oxford Economics, Quebec is among the provinces that will take the biggest hit from the new tariffs, given its heavy reliance on automotive, metals and manufacturing exports.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, whose Parti Québécois (PQ) is leading in opinion polls, attempted to defuse the issue last week by confirming he wouldn’t call a referendum until the end of Trump’s second term in the White House.

“This election is about Quebec, and what we need to do for Quebec’s future,” St-Pierre Plamondon told reporters.

However, the latest polls suggest the race tightening, with the ruling CAQ, stuck behind the PQ and Liberals for months, gaining ground.

Comparisons to Carney

CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette has the advantage of being in power during the upheaval.

She appeared alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney twice in as many weeks leading up to the campaign, first to announce the Churchill Falls energy deal and then on Tuesday for the unveilling of $11 billion in funding for six new icebreakers built in Quebec.

Fréchette also announced two new financial aid programs specifically aimed at small and medium-sized businesses in the manufacturing and primary sectors hit hardest by the tariffs.

The CAQ is hoping Fréchette replicates Carney’s rise after taking over an unpopular governing party. 

But Fournier said the comparison breaks down quickly — Carney’s popularity immediately boosted the Liberals, while the CAQ didn’t see the same continued improvement under Fréchette. 

And, he added, there is no opponent similar to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who was “accused of sounding a lot like Trump.”

Parties make their pitches

Her opponents are already trying to dismantle the idea that Fréchette is best suited to handle the moment.

St-Pierre Plamondon said Fréchette was out of touch with the federal government’s negotiating tactics and had failed to protect Quebec’s interests. Charles Milliard, leader of the Quebec Liberals, said his party would be best suited to forge stronger relationships with the federal government and other provinces.

Meanwhile, Québec Solidaire has proposed a $1 billion annual “Trump provision” to directly support affected workers and businesses, while Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives are promising $47 billion in spending cuts and tax relief.

“Whichever leader who will be able to capture the electorate and say, “I am the steady hand on the wheel with the storm that’s coming with Donald Trump and the tariffs and the uncertainty,” I think will have the upper hand,” Fournier said.

“But we do not know who that will be yet.”