In two Canadian provinces, two different conversations are unfolding about the prospect of leaving the country for good, and it seems two different age cohorts are making the push.
In Quebec, some of those at the forefront are people who weren’t even born when la belle province last had its say in a separation referendum, in 1995.
Earlier this summer, a pro-independence group threw a large event coinciding with Fête nationale, where some 12,000 people showed up, many of them Gen Z.
In Alberta, the demographic pushing for separation tends to skew a little older.
“We find that peak separatism is actually in the middle-aged categories,” said John Santos, data scientist at Janet Brown Opinion Research.
The polling company surveyed Albertans earlier this year for CBC News on their views on separation, with the results suggesting support for independence was highest in the 45- to 54-year-old range, at 35 per cent.
On the flip side, 18- to 24-year-olds had the highest disapproval of separatism, at 81 per cent, with the polling suggesting just 14 per cent were in favour.
Santos notes that grouping had a lower number of respondents, and therefore a higher margin of error. But recent polls from Angus Reid and Leger also both suggest the percentage of support for Alberta separation among 18- to 34-year-olds to be in the mid-teens.
That’s not to say there isn’t support among young Albertans, according to Santos, and he adds that it’s entirely possible more young people could be persuaded.
“Many of those younger people are just starting to engage with civic and political ideas and so I think the larger story here is that many of them are not committed one way or another,” Santos said.
“In some ways, they could be up for grabs.”
The Gen Z effect in Quebec
Camille Goyette-Gingras is president of OUI Québec, a pro-Quebec independence organization that describes itself as non-partisan and grassroots, and organized the June event.
At 32, she describes herself as one of the older staff members of the group.
“In general, I think it’s true for young people around the world, but it’s really true for young people in Quebec, there’s like a feeling that there’s a loss of control over what could happen in their future,” Goyette-Gingras said.
She says that includes concerns about the environment, and specifically in Quebec, concerns about loss of culture or language.
And for the most part, she does not think parental influence is playing a part.
“I think it’s mostly young people among themselves that took back the independence idea like it never existed before,” she said.
“So sometimes we see a moment a bit funny with their parents, because you have the kid that is explaining to their parents what is the Quebec independence movement, but sometimes [the parent] themselves have been [an] activist a few years back.”
In speaking with CBC Radio’s The Current in June, 25-year-old OUI Québec organizer Alex Valiquette highlighted a few factors that could be pushing young Quebecers to the movement. He noted frustration about the future, post-pandemic isolation, and in some cases, simply the fact his generation is coming at it with fresh eyes.
The Current19:29Meet the Gen Z Quebec separatists
“What’s different is that we don’t have this humiliation that our parents felt when they lost it,” he told The Current.
Just 1.16 percentage points separated the yes and no votes in the 1995 referendum.
While young Quebecers may have become a visible face of the sovereignty push, from a numbers perspective, support for independence is similar among all ages, according to recent polling. A Leger poll this month put support at 31 per cent among those 18-34, compared to 32 per cent and 29 per cent for those 35-54 and 55-plus, respectively.
Despite the Parti Québécois holding a narrow lead in the polls only months before a provincial election, and the party’s leader adamant he wants to hold a referendum on sovereignty, less than a third of Quebecers support the province seeking independence from Canada, according to a recent poll.
This video has been updated to correct an error in a polling number provided. According to the survey, 71% of Quebecers polled were not in favour of a referendum.
But a referendum in Quebec is unlikely to come anytime soon. Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said recently that should he win this fall’s provincial election, he would not call a sovereignty referendum while U.S. President Donald Trump remains in office.
Goyette-Gingas says she often faces questions from reporters about her thoughts on Alberta independence. To her, it’s a different situation that feels somewhat removed from their quest.
But she says whatever the outcome, she hopes Ottawa respects Albertans’ democratic wishes.
Young sisters make case for independence
At 23 years old, Madison Holmes says she knows she is among the younger voices calling for a sovereign Alberta.
“Good on Quebec. They have a bit more of a history for speaking out and having their opinions shared. And this is a new thing for Alberta, at least this generation, our younger generation,” Madison said.
She, along with her 22-year-old sister, MayCee, hosts the podcast Home with Holmes.
MayCee says the “thought experiment” of independence was what first appealed to her, thinking about the logistics of how it would even be feasible. She says she is not looking to sway youth one way or the other, but rather to encourage them to get informed.
“Choosing not to make a decision is still a decision, and it can have legitimate consequences,” said MayCee.
Madison says despite the somewhat older crowd often found at separatist events, they have met a number of people closer to their age calling for separation — some as young as 13 or 14.
“The youth aren’t as afraid is one thing I’m definitely seeing. They’re not as trepidatious about the uncertainties, whereas the older generations, they’ve had it good for a while so they think, as things are, it’s tolerable,” said Madison.
Youth have some fears, Madison believes, like ostracization from their peers if they were to publicly show support for separation.
And, more critically, fear of what their current day-to-day looks like with low youth employment and high cost of living. Both sisters say many their age are focused on that, and might not have the time to fully research the issue.
Vote to remain
That’s a point Calgarian Alex Leontovich, 21, might agree with. He supports Alberta remaining in Canada, and says while his peers might be aware of the upcoming referendum, they might not understand the potential repercussions.
“Because all they know is, especially right now with the cost-of-living crisis, is eat, go to work for maybe 12 hours a day … or they are searching for jobs,” he said. “They have no time to actually put some thought into that.”
Leontovich was born in Ontario but moved to Alberta as an infant, growing up in the province.
“I know a bunch of people here that I would hate for me and them to just drop everything and what we’re doing and just have to move out,” he said.
Twenty-year-old Calgary university student Gurnoor Grewal worries it would be “anarchy” if Alberta were to separate. He knows firsthand the struggle to find a job but does not think separating is the answer.
The topic of separation comes up with friends, he says, but generally there are other topics they’d prefer to talk about. He says he sometimes looks to older generations for their thoughts on Alberta independence, but they don’t always have the answers, either.
“Sometimes I get surprised by it. It’s like, you guys have been living in Alberta for so long and when this topic of separation comes out, not that many people are informed,” said Grewal.
Youth turnout
How informed youth are — and how many turn out to vote on Oct. 19 — could be key.
Pollster Santos says there could be a higher chance some young people do not show up on referendum day if they are not plugged in. And he says that could be a problem for the remain side, should the polls prove accurate on which way young people are leaning.
Samantha Reusch is the executive director of Apathy is Boring, a non-partisan organization that encourages young people to engage in the democratic process. Over the last decade, she says the viewpoints of young people have shifted. Rather than being potentially apathetic about voting, many have become disillusioned about the political system.
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The group plans to organize activations in the fall in the lead up to the referendum in order to raise awareness about the upcoming vote.
“Young people are not a monolith, and often in the modern sort of information environment, can experience things in dramatically different ways,” Reusch said.
That means Gen Z voters can be seeing very different conversations about separation, she said, depending on their online sphere of influence.
“You can have young people who every day log on to social media and see tons of content about why Alberta needs to leave Canada,” she said. “You can also be someone who lives just next door, who logs on and sees content about why remaining in Canada is important.
“You can also be a person who logs on every day and only sees videos of cats and never experiences anything about [the referendum.]”
