Who’s leading the “remain” side in this divisive, near-existential referendum on separation for Alberta? And who’s leading the “leave” side, pushing for a future binding independence question?
These are simple questions. There are not simple answers.
If there’s one thing that unites the disparate sides of this debate, it’s that neither is organized by a single, top-down umbrella group.
Rather, there are various organizations with different approaches to activism, and different leaders — some who may clash too much to all be shouting for attention under the same tent.
“Oh, my God, can you see all of us in one room trying to get along over that?” Mitch Sylvestre of the Alberta Prosperity Project said on a podcast this week. “Yeah, it’s never going to happen.”
Quebec’s 1995 referendum campaign may have been dominated by active political leaders — the Parti Québécois premier and Bloc Québécois leader on one side, and the Quebec Liberal leader and various federal politicos on the other.
But it’s different in Alberta.
Danielle Smith, the United Conservative premier who put forth the question, formally opposes the secession option, as do other mainstream political parties in the province and Ottawa. And yet she and other key office-holders may cede the forefront of the movement to other organizers.
Here’s a brief field guide to the groups cropping up ahead of Alberta’s Oct. 19 decision.
First, on the federalist side…
Forever Canadian
Well before Smith confirmed a question on Alberta’s future would be on the ballot, former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk had marshalled an army to fight it.
Last year, his group gathered more than 400,000 signatures on a pro-Canada citizen’s initiative designed to counteract or pre-empt a similar movement by the separatists.
He and his allies are irked Smith is using his petition to justify the October referendum, but they’ve been first out of the gate to combat it.
Last weekend, Forever Canadian opened a campaign office in Edmonton, with more promised in other cities. Lukaszuk also debuted a red-and-white “unity bus” that will visit Calgary on Sunday, to distribute lawn signs to many federalist Albertans who want to advertise their patriotism.
He told CBC News he made an initial order of 15,000 signs and is close to needing another.
“They’re sort of the crack cocaine of Alberta,” he said. “Everyone wants one.”
He understands why other federalists haven’t joined his efforts, “as long as all of us are rowing in the same direction.”
“If there are people that I can’t reach out to for some reason, I hope that one of the other groups does,” Lukaszuk said. “I think they will end up complementing each other.”
While he was a four-term Progressive Conservative MLA from 2001 to 2015, Lukaszuk has skewed to the progressive side since. He’s endorsed the Liberals federally and New Democrats provincially.
Vote to Stay
The same day Smith announced the question, former federal Conservative cabinet minister Monte Solberg announced his third-party advertising group to support the stay option.
Once registered, Elections Alberta will allow it to spend up to $607,000 on advertising, which Solberg said will likely be a predominantly digital effort with some conventional media spots.
“We’ve got to figure out how far $607,000 will go over a four and a half month campaign. I don’t think it’ll go that far, to be honest,” said Solberg, who now leads a Calgary-based government relations firm.
For that reason, he thinks it’s good there will be various organizations cropping up to fight separatism, each able to raise and spend the maximum amount.
Fellow former conservative politicians have joined his effort, including former premier Jason Kenney and former Alberta finance minister Travis Toews. It’s not surprising Kenney didn’t link arms with Lukaszuk on this front, given the two have clashed politically in the past.
Lead Not Leave
This group of academics, politicos and others will not register as an advertiser, but bills itself as a “pop-up think-tank” to produce research papers and salon-style conversations that warn against breaking Canada apart.
Former political aide Ken Boessenkool and political scientist Jared Wesley have brought together former Alberta ministers Toews and Jim Dinning, high-profile university economists Andrew Leach and Trevor Tombe, along with others.
“Our goal is to address Alberta’s legitimate frustrations in a way that is productive and proactive, strengthening both Canada and our province’s place within it,” the group’s mission statement says.
“Where separatists are offering attractive ideas, we’ll test them out. When their claims are rooted in wishful thinking or a retreat from grounded reality, we will call them out.”
Alberta’s Voice
This third-party advertiser is the creation of veteran political strategist Stephen Carter, though it wasn’t his first preference for a vehicle.
Carter had attempted to join forces with the long-struggling Alberta Liberal Party, rebranding and converting it into a political vehicle dedicated to campaigning on the referendums — and as a party, he wouldn’t have been bound by Elections Alberta’s $607,000 spending limit.
However, he didn’t have enough supporters at the party’s general meeting in early May to steer the Liberals in his preferred direction.
What distinguishes his group from others is that Alberta’s Voice will campaign not just on the separation question, but on the other nine referendums Smith will put to voters this fall as well, including ones to restrict services to some immigrants and push reforms to Canada’s Constitution.
Carter has said on his podcast The Strategists that to him, all 10 questions “are separatist questions.”
Solberg said his group hasn’t yet discussed any positions on those other ballot measures.
Politicians
Like Lukaszuk, the Alberta NDP had its anti-separatist campaign ready before Smith’s question was announced, launching For Alberta, For Canada back in April.
The premier has said she will travel the province this summer to advocate for staying in Canada, although it’s not yet clear Smith’s activity will resemble her summer 2024 town halls, which were for UCP members only, or if they will take another form.
Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who represents a rural Alberta riding, has pledged to campaign around the province “encouraging Albertans to stay as part of the Canadian family.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to do his part for Canadian unity, but hasn’t yet tipped his hand at how much rally-style speech work it will feature.
“Part of the campaign is not a campaign but it’s actions,” he said this week. “It’s practising co-operative federalism with Alberta, with Quebec, with all provinces and territories in the country. With Indigenous Peoples as well.”
On the separatist side …
Alberta Prosperity Project
This group has been fighting the separatist cause since 2021, and led the Stay Free Alberta petition to try to force the government to ask voters a straight leave-or-stay question. A court ruling quashed that petition earlier this month, after the group had submitted what it said was 300,000 signatures to Elections Alberta.
This prompted Smith to put a modified question on the ballot, which doesn’t ask Albertans to endorse independence but rather if they want to launch a legal process to have a binding referendum on independence later.
APP’s leader Mitch Sylvestre and lawyer Jeffrey Rath have expressed anger with the compromise question. Sylvestre has said he might organize fellow United Conservative activists to try forcing a leadership review to turf Smith as UCP leader, while Rath has even criticized other separatists for backing the premier’s measure.
“Keith won’t say a negative word about Danielle. She clearly betrayed Alberta,” Rath wrote online last week about Keith Wilson, another prominent separatist lawyer.
APP became known for hosting lecture events throughout Alberta that touted the benefits of separating, but hasn’t done any since submitting its petition — although Sylvestre spoke at events in Saskatchewan in late May, in support of that province’s independence movement.
Rath told CBC News that APP will register as a third-party advertiser, although perhaps under another name. It had not registered as one previously, prompting legal scrutiny by Elections Alberta, the Globe and Mail reported.
APP has maintained it’s an educational group rather than a political effort. Its petition drive was done under the separate auspices of Stay Free Alberta, and Sylvestre’s coming push against Smith’s leadership would occur separate from APP as well, he told CBC News.
Alberta’s Next Step
Keith Wilson, who debated ex-premier Kenney at a public event this week, has promised to launch a new group that lays out the case for separatism.
On Friday, he told CBC Radio’s Calgary Eyeopener that his movement’s grassroots effort has proved successful but more was needed to counter the lobbyists, politicians and media-savvy professionals on the other side.
“We’re entering into a new phase,” he said. “Those of us who support independence need to do interviews on CBC, we need to put together campaign materials, sophisticated websites, and make the information much more accessible to those who would currently vote no, or those who are undecided.”
The House50:13Alberta calls a referendum on holding a referendum
He’s launched one such website for the Alberta Transition Council, which promises to author a white paper on what an independent Alberta would look like. Wilson is leading those efforts alongside Dennis Kalma, the chief writer of a similar plan the APP launched, touting a massive income tax cut in the country of Alberta.
Wilson acknowledged a “bit of a split in the independence movement,” with many activists like him opposing Sylvestre’s fight against Smith and preferring to focus on persuading voters.
Let’s Talk Alberta
Separatist activist Chris Scott used to be interim head of APP, and remains on its board. But he’s struck out on his own to launch a tour of pro-separatist speaking events, and disagrees with Rath and Sylvestre “weaponizing” their movement to fight the premier.
“There’s a group of people that appreciate Jeff’s brashness and his courage to say things that other people wouldn’t often say,” Scott told CBC News.
“But I’m a realist and I believe in Alberta sovereignty and I know that there are people who are not receptive to that type of thing. I want to specifically reach the people who disagree with me, rather than just brush them off.”
Scott first rose to prominence during the pandemic, when he was charged and health authorities shuttered his Whistle Stop Café in east-central Alberta for breaching restrictions on large gatherings and in-person dining. He was ultimately acquitted.
Last July 1, he organized an Albertans Day celebration outside his café, as separatist counter-programming to Canada Day.
Scott has a steady schedule of speaking events in towns throughout the province with fellow independence advocates.
Next week alone, Let’s Talk will be talking in the northern Alberta communities of Westlock, Winfield, Whitecourt, Fairview and Sexsmith.
Centurion Project
This group initially promised to become a powerful organizing force for the separatist side, but has paused all activities since Elections Alberta won a court order in April to force the closing of the group’s database after discovering it contained a provincial voters’ list with the names and addresses of 2.9 million Albertans.
The elections agency is investigating the group’s acquisition and use of that list, as is the RCMP and Alberta privacy commissioner.
This initiative was led by David Parker, the grassroots organizer behind Take Back Alberta. That group helped lead the push to remove Jason Kenney as premier and UCP leader in 2022, and had organized to put like-minded activists on the governing party’s board of directors, before Parker shifted his efforts more recently to independence.
APP’s Sylvestre, a former regional captain for Take Back, has said his group and the petition drive rebuffed offers to join forces with the Centurion Project.
